Determinants of multidrug‐resistant tuberculosis in São Paulo—Brazil: a multilevel Bayesian analysis of factors associated with individual, community and access to health services

OBJECTIVE: Multidrug‐resistant tuberculosis (MDR‐TB) remains a serious public health problem worldwide. Accordingly, this study sought to identify individual, community and access to health services risk factors for MDR‐TB. METHODS: Retrospective cohort of all TB cases diagnosed between 2006 and 2016 in the state of São Paulo. A Bayesian spatial hierarchical analysis with a multilevel design was carried out. RESULTS: It was identified that the history of previous TB treatment (Odds Ratios [OR]:13.86, 95% credibility interval [95% CI]:12.06–15.93), positive sputum culture test (OR: 5.26, 95% CI: 4.44–6.23), diabetes mellitus (OR: 2.34, 95% CI: 1.87–2.91), residing at a standard address (OR: 2.62, 95% CI: 1.91–3.60), positive sputum smear microscopy (OR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.44–2.12), cavitary pulmonary TB (OR: 1.35, 95% CI: 1.14–1.60) and diagnosis performed due to spontaneous request (OR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.10–1.46) were associated with MDR‐TB. Furthermore, municipalities that performed HIV tests in less than 42.65% of patients with TB (OR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.25–1.79), that diagnosed TB cases only after death (OR: 1.50, 95% CI: 1.17–1.93) and that had more than 20.16% of their population with income between ¼ and ½ of one minimum wage (OR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.30–1.87) were also related to the MDR‐TB. CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge of these predictive factors may help to develop more comprehensive disease prevention strategies for MDR‐TB, avoiding the risks expressed regarding drug resistance expansion.