Computationally Optimized SARS-CoV-2 MHC Class I and II Vaccine Formulations Predicted to Target Human Haplotype Distributions

We present a combinatorial machine learning method to evaluate and optimize peptide vaccine formulations for SARS-CoV-2. Our approach optimizes the presentation likelihood of a diverse set of vaccine peptides conditioned on a target human-population HLA haplotype distribution and expected epitope drift. Our proposed SARS-CoV-2 MHC class I vaccine formulations provide 93.21% predicted population coverage with at least five vaccine peptide-HLA average hits per person (≥ 1 peptide: 99.91%) with all vaccine peptides perfectly conserved across 4,690 geographically sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Our proposed MHC class II vaccine formulations provide 97.21% predicted coverage with at least five vaccine peptide-HLA average hits per person with all peptides having an observed mutation probability of ≤ 0.001. We provide an open-source implementation of our design methods (OptiVax), vaccine evaluation tool (EvalVax), as well as the data used in our design efforts here: https://github.com/gifford-lab/optivax.