Prognostic Value of N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide and Glomerular Filtration Rate in Patients With Acute Heart Failure

Aims: To investigate the relationship between N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), Glomerular Filtration Rate (GFR), and outcomes in patients hospitalized with acute heart failure (AHF). Methods: The trial was registered at http://www.chictr.org/cn/. (ChiCTR – ONC - 12001944). A total of 493 patients hospitalized for AHF in cardiology department of the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from March 2012 to October 2016 were enrolled into registry. The end event was the occurrence of all-cause death within an 18-month follow-up. The data collected from the participants in admission were used to calculate the GFR by chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration equation (CKD-EPI) and performed the according statistical analysis. Results: There were 74 participants (13.8%) dropped out and 91 (21.7%) passed away within the 18-month follow up. Comparison of clinical indicators between survival and death group were analyzed for the long-term prognosis of patients with AHF. In the single factor analysis, both NT-proBNP and GFR were statistically significant (P < 0.001). Combined NT-proBNP and GFR in multi-factor COX regression analysis showed significant predictive value (P < 0.001). In receiver operator characteristics (ROC) analyses, the area under the curves (AUC) for NT-proBNP was 0.648 [95%CI: 0.598–0.695, P < 0.001] and for GFR was 0.677 [95%CI: 0.627–0.723, P < 0.001]. According to the Youden index, the best prediction point of NT-proBNP was 2,137 pg/ml and GFR was 61.7 ml/(min·1.73 m(2)). After using the Binary Logistic Regression to combine the two indicators, the AUC was 0.711, which was significantly compared to the AUC of either single factor. The sensitivity of the combined indicators were 0.535, the specificity were 0.853. According to the cut-off point, these two indexes were separated into four groups for further analysis by Kaplan-Meier survival curve comparison (log-rank test), which showed that patients in the group with higher NT-proBNP and lower GFR had the worst prognosis. Conclusions: In patients with NT-proBNP > 2,137 pg/ml and GFR < 61.7 ml/(min·1.73 m(2)), the risk of death was significantly higher. The combination of GFR and NT-proBNP improved the predictive value for the long-term prognosis of AHF patients.