Policy Development for Pandemic Response Using System Dynamics: a Case Study on COVID-19

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has burdened several countries. Its high transmissibility and mortality rate have caused devastating impacts on human lives. This has led countries to implement control strategies, such as social distancing, travel bans, and community lockdowns, with...

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Autores principales: Sy, Charlle, Bernardo, Ezekiel, Miguel, Angelimarie, San Juan, Jayne Lois, Mayol, Andres Philip, Ching, Phoebe Mae, Culaba, Alvin, Ubando, Aristotle, Mutuc, Jose Edgar
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Singapore 2020
Materias:
Short Communication
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7388738/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41660-020-00130-x
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author Sy, Charlle
Bernardo, Ezekiel
Miguel, Angelimarie
San Juan, Jayne Lois
Mayol, Andres Philip
Ching, Phoebe Mae
Culaba, Alvin
Ubando, Aristotle
Mutuc, Jose Edgar
author_facet Sy, Charlle
Bernardo, Ezekiel
Miguel, Angelimarie
San Juan, Jayne Lois
Mayol, Andres Philip
Ching, Phoebe Mae
Culaba, Alvin
Ubando, Aristotle
Mutuc, Jose Edgar
author_sort Sy, Charlle
collection PubMed
description The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has burdened several countries. Its high transmissibility and mortality rate have caused devastating impacts on human lives. This has led countries to implement control strategies, such as social distancing, travel bans, and community lockdowns, with varying levels of success. However, a disease outbreak can cause significant economic disruption from business closures and risk avoidance behaviors. This paper raises policy recommendations through a system dynamics modeling approach. The developed model captures relationships, feedbacks, and delays present in a disease transmission system. The dynamics of several policies are analyzed and assessed based on effectiveness in mitigating infection and the resulting economic strain.
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spelling pubmed-73887382020-07-30 Policy Development for Pandemic Response Using System Dynamics: a Case Study on COVID-19 Sy, Charlle Bernardo, Ezekiel Miguel, Angelimarie San Juan, Jayne Lois Mayol, Andres Philip Ching, Phoebe Mae Culaba, Alvin Ubando, Aristotle Mutuc, Jose Edgar Process Integr Optim Sustain Short Communication The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak has burdened several countries. Its high transmissibility and mortality rate have caused devastating impacts on human lives. This has led countries to implement control strategies, such as social distancing, travel bans, and community lockdowns, with varying levels of success. However, a disease outbreak can cause significant economic disruption from business closures and risk avoidance behaviors. This paper raises policy recommendations through a system dynamics modeling approach. The developed model captures relationships, feedbacks, and delays present in a disease transmission system. The dynamics of several policies are analyzed and assessed based on effectiveness in mitigating infection and the resulting economic strain. Springer Singapore 2020-07-29 2020 /pmc/articles/PMC7388738/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41660-020-00130-x Text en © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Short Communication
Sy, Charlle
Bernardo, Ezekiel
Miguel, Angelimarie
San Juan, Jayne Lois
Mayol, Andres Philip
Ching, Phoebe Mae
Culaba, Alvin
Ubando, Aristotle
Mutuc, Jose Edgar
Policy Development for Pandemic Response Using System Dynamics: a Case Study on COVID-19
title Policy Development for Pandemic Response Using System Dynamics: a Case Study on COVID-19
title_full Policy Development for Pandemic Response Using System Dynamics: a Case Study on COVID-19
title_fullStr Policy Development for Pandemic Response Using System Dynamics: a Case Study on COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed Policy Development for Pandemic Response Using System Dynamics: a Case Study on COVID-19
title_short Policy Development for Pandemic Response Using System Dynamics: a Case Study on COVID-19
title_sort policy development for pandemic response using system dynamics: a case study on covid-19
topic Short Communication
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7388738/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41660-020-00130-x
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