Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness

A simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic dynamics under quarantine conditions and method to estimate quarantine effectiveness are developed. The model is based on the daily growth rate of new infections when total number of infections is significantly smaller than population size of infected country...

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Autores principales: Džiugys, Algis, Bieliūnas, Martynas, Skarbalius, Gediminas, Misiulis, Edgaras, Navakas, Robertas
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7388770/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834646
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110162
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author Džiugys, Algis
Bieliūnas, Martynas
Skarbalius, Gediminas
Misiulis, Edgaras
Navakas, Robertas
author_facet Džiugys, Algis
Bieliūnas, Martynas
Skarbalius, Gediminas
Misiulis, Edgaras
Navakas, Robertas
author_sort Džiugys, Algis
collection PubMed
description A simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic dynamics under quarantine conditions and method to estimate quarantine effectiveness are developed. The model is based on the daily growth rate of new infections when total number of infections is significantly smaller than population size of infected country or region. The model is developed on the basis of collected epidemiological data of Covid19 pandemic, which shows that the daily growth rate of new infections has tendency to decrease linearly when the quarantine is imposed in a country (or a region) until it reaches a constant value, which corresponds to the effectiveness of quarantine measures taken in the country. The daily growth rate of new infections can be used as criteria to estimate quarantine effectiveness.
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spelling pubmed-73887702020-07-30 Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness Džiugys, Algis Bieliūnas, Martynas Skarbalius, Gediminas Misiulis, Edgaras Navakas, Robertas Chaos Solitons Fractals Article A simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic dynamics under quarantine conditions and method to estimate quarantine effectiveness are developed. The model is based on the daily growth rate of new infections when total number of infections is significantly smaller than population size of infected country or region. The model is developed on the basis of collected epidemiological data of Covid19 pandemic, which shows that the daily growth rate of new infections has tendency to decrease linearly when the quarantine is imposed in a country (or a region) until it reaches a constant value, which corresponds to the effectiveness of quarantine measures taken in the country. The daily growth rate of new infections can be used as criteria to estimate quarantine effectiveness. Elsevier Ltd. 2020-11 2020-07-29 /pmc/articles/PMC7388770/ /pubmed/32834646 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110162 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Džiugys, Algis
Bieliūnas, Martynas
Skarbalius, Gediminas
Misiulis, Edgaras
Navakas, Robertas
Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness
title Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness
title_full Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness
title_fullStr Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness
title_full_unstemmed Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness
title_short Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness
title_sort simplified model of covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7388770/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834646
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110162
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