Implications of acute temperature and salinity tolerance thresholds for the persistence of intertidal invertebrate populations experiencing climate change

To predict whether populations of marine animals will persist in the face of changing climate conditions, it is informative to understand how past climate conditions have shaped present‐day tolerance thresholds. We examined 4 species of intertidal invertebrates (Nucella lamellosa, Littorina scutulata, Littorina sitkana, and Balanus glandula) inhabiting the coasts of Vancouver Island, Canada, where the east coast experiences historically warmer sea surface temperature (SST), warmer low tide (i.e., emersion) rock surface temperature (RST), and lower sea surface salinity (SSS) than the west coast. To determine if east coast populations have higher tolerance thresholds to acute stress than west coast populations, animals from 3 sites per coast were exposed to stressful temperatures and salinities in common garden experiments. Emersion temperature tolerance differed between populations only in N. lamellosa and B. glandula, tolerance thresholds being 1.4–1.5°C higher on the east coast. Water temperature tolerance differed between populations only in B. glandula and L. scutulata but was highest on the west coast. No differences in salinity tolerance were observed within any species. Thus, there is limited evidence of divergence among east and west coast populations in tolerance of acute stress despite the substantial historical differences in extreme temperature and salinity conditions between coasts. However, based on present‐day summertime SST and RST and known rates of change in these parameters, we predict present‐day tolerance thresholds would be sufficient to allow adults of these populations to tolerate extreme temperatures predicted for the next several hundred years, and that even a slow rate of change in acute tolerance thresholds might suffice to keep up with future temperature extremes.