Anti-nucleosome antibodies increase the risk of renal relapse in a prospective cohort of patients with clinically inactive systemic lupus erythematosus

An important goal in the management of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is the prediction of relapses. This study assesses whether anti-nucleosome antibodies (anti-NCS) increase the risk of renal relapse in inactive SLE. A prospective cohort of 115 patients with inactive SLE (M-SLEDAI ≤ 2) were followed for 12 months to assess the development of relapse (increase of M-SLEDAI ≥ 4) and specific renal flare (renal SLEDAI ≥ 4). At baseline, we identified potential risk factors for relapse, including anti-NCS. At baseline, 18 (16%) of the 115 patients with inactive SLE were anti-NCS positive. At the 12-month follow-up, anti-NCS-positive patients had a higher incidence of renal relapse compared to anti-NCS-negative patients (38.9% vs 13.4%, respectively). In Cox regression analysis, after adjusting for age, disease duration, anti-dsDNA, and immunosuppressive drugs, the presence of anti-NCS positivity at baseline increased the risk of renal relapse (HR: 5.31, 95% CI 2.03–13.92). Nevertheless, there were no differences in the incidence of other relapses in anti-NCS-positive versus anti-NCS-negative. Our results indicate that in inactive SLE, anti-NCS determination can be useful for identifying patients with a higher risk of developing renal relapse. Interestingly, this study identified that continued use of oral immunosuppressive therapy in patients with inactive SLE can reduce the risk of renal relapse.