Predicting success: A comparative analysis of student performance on the surgical clerkship and the NBME surgery subject exam

BACKGROUND: The National Board of Medical Examiners surgery shelf is a well-established terminal measure of student medical knowledge. No study has explored the correlation between intraclerkship quizzes and shelf exam performance. METHODS: Weekly quiz and National Board of Medical Examiners scores were collected from 156 third-year students who participated in a 12-week surgical clerkship from 2015 to 2017. Kruskal-Wallis, Wilcoxon rank sum, and linear regression analysis was completed. RESULTS: Trauma/Burns, Esophagus/Anorectal, and Wound/Intensive Care Unit quiz content corresponded with increased National Board of Medical Examiners performance with β-coefficients of 1.57 (P < .001), 1.42 (P < .001), 1.38 (P < .001), respectively. Wound/Intensive Care Unit and Cardio/Vascular content corresponded with decreased likelihood of scoring < 70 points on the National Board of Medical Examiners (OR: 0.75 (P = .03), and 0.68 (P = .02)). Aggregate quiz scores stratified by academic block were 67 (IQR 64–69.5), 77 (IQR 74.5–80), 76.5 (IQR of 67–89.5), 83 (IQR of 76–85) corresponding to academic blocks 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively (P < .001). CONCLUSION: Modeling National Board of Medical Examiners outcomes as a function of weekly quizzes taken during a 12-week surgery clerkship is a viable concept.