Cargando…
Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease
By April 2, 2020, >1 million persons worldwide were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We used a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing interventions in a mid-sized city. Interventions reduced contacts of adults >60 years of age, ad...
Autores principales: | , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2020
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7392458/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32343222 http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2608.201093 |
_version_ | 1783564852364574720 |
---|---|
author | Matrajt, Laura Leung, Tiffany |
author_facet | Matrajt, Laura Leung, Tiffany |
author_sort | Matrajt, Laura |
collection | PubMed |
description | By April 2, 2020, >1 million persons worldwide were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We used a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing interventions in a mid-sized city. Interventions reduced contacts of adults >60 years of age, adults 20–59 years of age, and children <19 years of age for 6 weeks. Our results suggest interventions started earlier in the epidemic delay the epidemic curve and interventions started later flatten the epidemic curve. We noted that, while social distancing interventions were in place, most new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were averted, even with modest reductions in contact among adults. However, when interventions ended, the epidemic rebounded. Our models suggest that social distancing can provide crucial time to increase healthcare capacity but must occur in conjunction with testing and contact tracing of all suspected cases to mitigate virus transmission. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7392458 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-73924582020-08-06 Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease Matrajt, Laura Leung, Tiffany Emerg Infect Dis Research By April 2, 2020, >1 million persons worldwide were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. We used a mathematical model to investigate the effectiveness of social distancing interventions in a mid-sized city. Interventions reduced contacts of adults >60 years of age, adults 20–59 years of age, and children <19 years of age for 6 weeks. Our results suggest interventions started earlier in the epidemic delay the epidemic curve and interventions started later flatten the epidemic curve. We noted that, while social distancing interventions were in place, most new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths were averted, even with modest reductions in contact among adults. However, when interventions ended, the epidemic rebounded. Our models suggest that social distancing can provide crucial time to increase healthcare capacity but must occur in conjunction with testing and contact tracing of all suspected cases to mitigate virus transmission. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2020-08 /pmc/articles/PMC7392458/ /pubmed/32343222 http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2608.201093 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is a publication of the U.S. Government. This publication is in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. All text from this work may be reprinted freely. Use of these materials should be properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Research Matrajt, Laura Leung, Tiffany Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease |
title | Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease |
title_full | Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease |
title_fullStr | Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease |
title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease |
title_short | Evaluating the Effectiveness of Social Distancing Interventions to Delay or Flatten the Epidemic Curve of Coronavirus Disease |
title_sort | evaluating the effectiveness of social distancing interventions to delay or flatten the epidemic curve of coronavirus disease |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7392458/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32343222 http://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2608.201093 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT matrajtlaura evaluatingtheeffectivenessofsocialdistancinginterventionstodelayorflattentheepidemiccurveofcoronavirusdisease AT leungtiffany evaluatingtheeffectivenessofsocialdistancinginterventionstodelayorflattentheepidemiccurveofcoronavirusdisease |