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Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century

Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global “hotspots” w...

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Autores principales: Kirezci, Ebru, Young, Ian R., Ranasinghe, Roshanka, Muis, Sanne, Nicholls, Robert J., Lincke, Daniel, Hinkel, Jochen
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7393110/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32732976
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67736-6
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author Kirezci, Ebru
Young, Ian R.
Ranasinghe, Roshanka
Muis, Sanne
Nicholls, Robert J.
Lincke, Daniel
Hinkel, Jochen
author_facet Kirezci, Ebru
Young, Ian R.
Ranasinghe, Roshanka
Muis, Sanne
Nicholls, Robert J.
Lincke, Daniel
Hinkel, Jochen
author_sort Kirezci, Ebru
collection PubMed
description Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global “hotspots” where there is projected to be a significant change in episodic flooding by the end of the century are identified and found to be mostly concentrated in north western Europe and Asia. Results show that for the case of, no coastal protection or adaptation, and a mean RCP8.5 scenario, there will be an increase of 48% of the world’s land area, 52% of the global population and 46% of global assets at risk of flooding by 2100. A total of 68% of the global coastal area flooded will be caused by tide and storm events with 32% due to projected regional sea level rise.
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spelling pubmed-73931102020-08-03 Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century Kirezci, Ebru Young, Ian R. Ranasinghe, Roshanka Muis, Sanne Nicholls, Robert J. Lincke, Daniel Hinkel, Jochen Sci Rep Article Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global “hotspots” where there is projected to be a significant change in episodic flooding by the end of the century are identified and found to be mostly concentrated in north western Europe and Asia. Results show that for the case of, no coastal protection or adaptation, and a mean RCP8.5 scenario, there will be an increase of 48% of the world’s land area, 52% of the global population and 46% of global assets at risk of flooding by 2100. A total of 68% of the global coastal area flooded will be caused by tide and storm events with 32% due to projected regional sea level rise. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-07-30 /pmc/articles/PMC7393110/ /pubmed/32732976 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67736-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Kirezci, Ebru
Young, Ian R.
Ranasinghe, Roshanka
Muis, Sanne
Nicholls, Robert J.
Lincke, Daniel
Hinkel, Jochen
Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century
title Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century
title_full Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century
title_fullStr Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century
title_full_unstemmed Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century
title_short Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century
title_sort projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st century
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7393110/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32732976
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67736-6
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