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Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century
Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global “hotspots” w...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Nature Publishing Group UK
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7393110/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32732976 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67736-6 |
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author | Kirezci, Ebru Young, Ian R. Ranasinghe, Roshanka Muis, Sanne Nicholls, Robert J. Lincke, Daniel Hinkel, Jochen |
author_facet | Kirezci, Ebru Young, Ian R. Ranasinghe, Roshanka Muis, Sanne Nicholls, Robert J. Lincke, Daniel Hinkel, Jochen |
author_sort | Kirezci, Ebru |
collection | PubMed |
description | Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global “hotspots” where there is projected to be a significant change in episodic flooding by the end of the century are identified and found to be mostly concentrated in north western Europe and Asia. Results show that for the case of, no coastal protection or adaptation, and a mean RCP8.5 scenario, there will be an increase of 48% of the world’s land area, 52% of the global population and 46% of global assets at risk of flooding by 2100. A total of 68% of the global coastal area flooded will be caused by tide and storm events with 32% due to projected regional sea level rise. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7393110 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-73931102020-08-03 Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century Kirezci, Ebru Young, Ian R. Ranasinghe, Roshanka Muis, Sanne Nicholls, Robert J. Lincke, Daniel Hinkel, Jochen Sci Rep Article Global models of tide, storm surge, and wave setup are used to obtain projections of episodic coastal flooding over the coming century. The models are extensively validated against tide gauge data and the impact of uncertainties and assumptions on projections estimated in detail. Global “hotspots” where there is projected to be a significant change in episodic flooding by the end of the century are identified and found to be mostly concentrated in north western Europe and Asia. Results show that for the case of, no coastal protection or adaptation, and a mean RCP8.5 scenario, there will be an increase of 48% of the world’s land area, 52% of the global population and 46% of global assets at risk of flooding by 2100. A total of 68% of the global coastal area flooded will be caused by tide and storm events with 32% due to projected regional sea level rise. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-07-30 /pmc/articles/PMC7393110/ /pubmed/32732976 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67736-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Kirezci, Ebru Young, Ian R. Ranasinghe, Roshanka Muis, Sanne Nicholls, Robert J. Lincke, Daniel Hinkel, Jochen Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century |
title | Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century |
title_full | Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century |
title_fullStr | Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century |
title_full_unstemmed | Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century |
title_short | Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st Century |
title_sort | projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st century |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7393110/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32732976 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67736-6 |
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