A novel predictive score for citrate accumulation among patients receiving artificial liver support system therapy with regional citrate anticoagulation

Patients with liver failure may suffer citrate accumulation when using regional citrate anticoagulation for artificial liver support system therapy (RCA-ALSS therapy). This study aimed to develop a predictive scoring system to stratify the risk of citrate accumulation. A total of 338 patients treated with RCA-ALSS therapy were retrospectively enrolled and randomly divided into derivation and validation cohorts. Longer duration of citrate accumulation (LDCA) was defined as the presence of citrate accumulation 2 h after RCA-ALSS therapy. Four baseline variables were found to be independently associated with LDCA: gender, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, serum creatinine, and serum chloride. A predictive R-CA model and its simplified R-CA score were developed. The R-CA model (AUROC = 0.848) was found to be superior to the MELD score (AUROC = 0.725; p = 0.022) and other univariate predictors (AUROCs < 0.700; all p ≤ 0.001) in predicting LDCA. The R-CA score (AUROC = 0.803) was as capable as the R-CA model (p = 0.369) and the MELD score (p = 0.174), and was superior to other univariate predictors (all p < 0.05) in predicting LDCA. An R-CA score of 0–2 had a negative predictive value of 90.2% for LDCA. Our R-CA score reliably predicts LDCA in patients with RCA-ALSS therapy, and it is easy to use. Patients with R-CA score of 0–2 can safely receive RCA-ALSS therapy, while others should be carefully evaluated before treatment. Trial registration: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry, ChiCTR2000029179. Registered 17 January 2020, https://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=48084.