Scratch Card Near-Miss Outcomes Increase the Urge to Gamble, but Do Not Impact Further Gambling Behaviour: A Pre-registered Replication and Extension

Scratch card near-misses, outcomes in which two out of three required jackpot symbols are uncovered, have been shown to erroneously increase the urge to continue gambling. It remains unknown if and how these outcomes influence further gambling behaviour. Previous studies examining the influence of near-misses on purchasing behaviour offered a low-stakes gamble to participants after experiencing a near-miss or a regular loss. We sought to investigate the influence of these outcomes on scratch card purchasing behaviour with a stronger test of participants’ gambling behavior by having them either “cash out” or risk all of their winnings to purchase another card. Additionally, we sought to test an original hypothesis that endorsement of the illusion of control might influence the decision to purchase additional scratch cards. We pre-registered our hypotheses, sample size, and data analysis plan. 138 subjects experienced two custom-made scratch card games that included a win on the first card (for all participants) and either a regular loss or a near-miss in the final outcome position on the second card (between-subjects manipulation). Although near-miss outcomes increased the urge to continue gambling relative to regular losses, no differences in the rates of purchasing were found between the conditions. Additionally, no support for our hypotheses concerning the influence of the illusion of control in near-miss outcomes was found. These results are discussed in terms of previous studies on scratch card gambling behaviour and subjective reactivity.