How to predict early clinical outcomes and evaluate the quality of primary total knee arthroplasty: a new scoring system based on lower-extremity angles of alignment

BACKGROUND: A method that can accurately predict the outcome of surgery can give patients timely feedback. In addition, to some extent, an objective evaluation method can help the surgeon quickly summarize the patient’s surgical experience and lessen dependence on the long wait for follow-up results. However, there was still no precise tool to predict clinical outcomes of total knee arthroplasty (TKA). This study aimed to develop a scoring system to predict clinical results of TKA and then grade the quality of TKA. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed 98 primary TKAs performed between April 2013 and March 2017 to determine predictors of clinical outcomes among lower-extremity angles of alignment. Applying multivariable linear-regression analysis, we built Models (i) and (ii) to predict detailed clinical outcomes which were evaluated using the Knee Society Score (KSS). Multivariable logistic-regression analysis was used to establish Model (iii) to predict probability of getting a good clinical outcome (PGGCO) which was evaluated by Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) score. Finally, we designed a new scoring system consisting of 3 prediction models and presented a method of grading TKA quality. Thirty primary TKAs between April and December 2017 were enrolled for external validation. RESULTS: We set up a scoring system consisting of 3 models. The interpretations of Model (i) and (ii) were good (R(2) = 0.756 and 0.764, respectively). Model (iii) displayed good discrimination, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.936, and good calibration according to the calibration curve. Quality of surgery was stratified as follows: “A” = PGGCO ≥0.8, “B” = PGGCO ≤0.6 but < 0.8, and “C” = PGGCO < 0.6. The scoring system performed well in external validation. CONCLUSIONS: This study first developed a validated, evidence-based scoring system based on lower-extremity angles of alignment to predict early clinical outcomes and to objectively evaluate the quality of TKA.