Cargando…
Secular Trend of Cancer Death and Incidence in 29 Cancer Groups in China, 1990–2017: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis
PURPOSE: China has a heavy cancer burden. We aimed to quantitatively estimate the secular trend of cancer mortality and incidence in China. METHODS: We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized rates of 29 cancer groups (from 1990 to 2017) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Dove
2020
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7398884/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32801868 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/CMAR.S247648 |
_version_ | 1783566033702879232 |
---|---|
author | Liu, Xiaoxue Zhou, Maigeng Wang, Fang Mubarik, Sumaira Wang, Yafeng Meng, Runtang Shi, Fang Wen, Haoyu Yu, Chuanhua |
author_facet | Liu, Xiaoxue Zhou, Maigeng Wang, Fang Mubarik, Sumaira Wang, Yafeng Meng, Runtang Shi, Fang Wen, Haoyu Yu, Chuanhua |
author_sort | Liu, Xiaoxue |
collection | PubMed |
description | PURPOSE: China has a heavy cancer burden. We aimed to quantitatively estimate the secular trend of cancer mortality and incidence in China. METHODS: We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized rates of 29 cancer groups (from 1990 to 2017) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2017. We estimated rates of major cancer types for annual percent change by Joinpoint regression, and for age, period, and cohort effect by an age–period–cohort model. RESULTS: In 2017, breast cancer had the highest incidence rate in females. Lung cancer had the highest mortality and incidence rates in males. Although the age-standardized incidence rate of prostate cancer ranked second highest in males, it increased by 112% from 1990 to 2017. Individuals aged over 50 years were at high risk of developing cancer, and the number of deaths at this age accounted for over 89% of all cancers in all age groups. When compared with the global average level, the age-standardized mortality and incidence rates of both liver and esophageal cancers were 2.1 times higher in China, and stomach, lung and nasopharyngeal cancers in China also had high levels (more than 1.5 times higher). During 1990–2017, most of the 29 cancers exhibited an increasing incidence trend, and Joinpoint regression demonstrated increasing mortality of some major cancers. The period effect indicated that the risk of mortality and incidence due to the main cancers generally increased during 1992–2017. CONCLUSION: Trend analysis provided information on the effects of prevention strategies and targeted interventions on the occurrence of different cancers. Etiological studies need to be conducted on some major cancers in the Chinese population. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7398884 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Dove |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-73988842020-08-14 Secular Trend of Cancer Death and Incidence in 29 Cancer Groups in China, 1990–2017: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis Liu, Xiaoxue Zhou, Maigeng Wang, Fang Mubarik, Sumaira Wang, Yafeng Meng, Runtang Shi, Fang Wen, Haoyu Yu, Chuanhua Cancer Manag Res Original Research PURPOSE: China has a heavy cancer burden. We aimed to quantitatively estimate the secular trend of cancer mortality and incidence in China. METHODS: We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized rates of 29 cancer groups (from 1990 to 2017) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2017. We estimated rates of major cancer types for annual percent change by Joinpoint regression, and for age, period, and cohort effect by an age–period–cohort model. RESULTS: In 2017, breast cancer had the highest incidence rate in females. Lung cancer had the highest mortality and incidence rates in males. Although the age-standardized incidence rate of prostate cancer ranked second highest in males, it increased by 112% from 1990 to 2017. Individuals aged over 50 years were at high risk of developing cancer, and the number of deaths at this age accounted for over 89% of all cancers in all age groups. When compared with the global average level, the age-standardized mortality and incidence rates of both liver and esophageal cancers were 2.1 times higher in China, and stomach, lung and nasopharyngeal cancers in China also had high levels (more than 1.5 times higher). During 1990–2017, most of the 29 cancers exhibited an increasing incidence trend, and Joinpoint regression demonstrated increasing mortality of some major cancers. The period effect indicated that the risk of mortality and incidence due to the main cancers generally increased during 1992–2017. CONCLUSION: Trend analysis provided information on the effects of prevention strategies and targeted interventions on the occurrence of different cancers. Etiological studies need to be conducted on some major cancers in the Chinese population. Dove 2020-07-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7398884/ /pubmed/32801868 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/CMAR.S247648 Text en © 2020 Liu et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ This work is published and licensed by Dove Medical Press Limited. The full terms of this license are available at https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php and incorporate the Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial (unported, v3.0) License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/). By accessing the work you hereby accept the Terms. Non-commercial uses of the work are permitted without any further permission from Dove Medical Press Limited, provided the work is properly attributed. For permission for commercial use of this work, please see paragraphs 4.2 and 5 of our Terms (https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php). |
spellingShingle | Original Research Liu, Xiaoxue Zhou, Maigeng Wang, Fang Mubarik, Sumaira Wang, Yafeng Meng, Runtang Shi, Fang Wen, Haoyu Yu, Chuanhua Secular Trend of Cancer Death and Incidence in 29 Cancer Groups in China, 1990–2017: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis |
title | Secular Trend of Cancer Death and Incidence in 29 Cancer Groups in China, 1990–2017: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis |
title_full | Secular Trend of Cancer Death and Incidence in 29 Cancer Groups in China, 1990–2017: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis |
title_fullStr | Secular Trend of Cancer Death and Incidence in 29 Cancer Groups in China, 1990–2017: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis |
title_full_unstemmed | Secular Trend of Cancer Death and Incidence in 29 Cancer Groups in China, 1990–2017: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis |
title_short | Secular Trend of Cancer Death and Incidence in 29 Cancer Groups in China, 1990–2017: A Joinpoint and Age–Period–Cohort Analysis |
title_sort | secular trend of cancer death and incidence in 29 cancer groups in china, 1990–2017: a joinpoint and age–period–cohort analysis |
topic | Original Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7398884/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32801868 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/CMAR.S247648 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT liuxiaoxue seculartrendofcancerdeathandincidencein29cancergroupsinchina19902017ajoinpointandageperiodcohortanalysis AT zhoumaigeng seculartrendofcancerdeathandincidencein29cancergroupsinchina19902017ajoinpointandageperiodcohortanalysis AT wangfang seculartrendofcancerdeathandincidencein29cancergroupsinchina19902017ajoinpointandageperiodcohortanalysis AT mubariksumaira seculartrendofcancerdeathandincidencein29cancergroupsinchina19902017ajoinpointandageperiodcohortanalysis AT wangyafeng seculartrendofcancerdeathandincidencein29cancergroupsinchina19902017ajoinpointandageperiodcohortanalysis AT mengruntang seculartrendofcancerdeathandincidencein29cancergroupsinchina19902017ajoinpointandageperiodcohortanalysis AT shifang seculartrendofcancerdeathandincidencein29cancergroupsinchina19902017ajoinpointandageperiodcohortanalysis AT wenhaoyu seculartrendofcancerdeathandincidencein29cancergroupsinchina19902017ajoinpointandageperiodcohortanalysis AT yuchuanhua seculartrendofcancerdeathandincidencein29cancergroupsinchina19902017ajoinpointandageperiodcohortanalysis |