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Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach

Agriculture has been identified as one of the most vulnerable sectors affected by climate change. In the present study, we investigate the impact of climatic change on dryland wheat yield in the northwest of Iran for the future time horizon of 2041–2070. The Just and Pope production function is appl...

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Autores principales: Shayanmehr, Samira, Rastegari Henneberry, Shida, Sabouhi Sabouni, Mahmood, Shahnoushi Foroushani, Naser
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7399810/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32708323
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17145264
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author Shayanmehr, Samira
Rastegari Henneberry, Shida
Sabouhi Sabouni, Mahmood
Shahnoushi Foroushani, Naser
author_facet Shayanmehr, Samira
Rastegari Henneberry, Shida
Sabouhi Sabouni, Mahmood
Shahnoushi Foroushani, Naser
author_sort Shayanmehr, Samira
collection PubMed
description Agriculture has been identified as one of the most vulnerable sectors affected by climate change. In the present study, we investigate the impact of climatic change on dryland wheat yield in the northwest of Iran for the future time horizon of 2041–2070. The Just and Pope production function is applied to assess the impact of climate change on dryland wheat yield and yield risk for the period of 1991–2016. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to generate climate parameters from General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. The results show that minimum temperature is negatively related to average yield in the linear model while the relationship is positive in the non-linear model. An increase in precipitation increases the mean yield in either model. The maximum temperature has a positive effect on the mean yield in the linear model, while this impact is negative in the non-linear model. Drought has an adverse impact on yield levels in both models. The results also indicate that maximum temperature, precipitation, and drought are positively related to yield variability, but minimum temperature is negatively associated with yield variability. The findings also reveal that yield variability is expected to increase in response to future climate scenarios. Given these impacts of temperature on rain-fed wheat crop and its increasing vulnerability to climatic change, policy-makers should support research into and development of wheat varieties that are resistant to temperature variations.
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spelling pubmed-73998102020-08-17 Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach Shayanmehr, Samira Rastegari Henneberry, Shida Sabouhi Sabouni, Mahmood Shahnoushi Foroushani, Naser Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Agriculture has been identified as one of the most vulnerable sectors affected by climate change. In the present study, we investigate the impact of climatic change on dryland wheat yield in the northwest of Iran for the future time horizon of 2041–2070. The Just and Pope production function is applied to assess the impact of climate change on dryland wheat yield and yield risk for the period of 1991–2016. The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to generate climate parameters from General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs. The results show that minimum temperature is negatively related to average yield in the linear model while the relationship is positive in the non-linear model. An increase in precipitation increases the mean yield in either model. The maximum temperature has a positive effect on the mean yield in the linear model, while this impact is negative in the non-linear model. Drought has an adverse impact on yield levels in both models. The results also indicate that maximum temperature, precipitation, and drought are positively related to yield variability, but minimum temperature is negatively associated with yield variability. The findings also reveal that yield variability is expected to increase in response to future climate scenarios. Given these impacts of temperature on rain-fed wheat crop and its increasing vulnerability to climatic change, policy-makers should support research into and development of wheat varieties that are resistant to temperature variations. MDPI 2020-07-21 2020-07 /pmc/articles/PMC7399810/ /pubmed/32708323 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17145264 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Shayanmehr, Samira
Rastegari Henneberry, Shida
Sabouhi Sabouni, Mahmood
Shahnoushi Foroushani, Naser
Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach
title Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach
title_full Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach
title_fullStr Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach
title_full_unstemmed Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach
title_short Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach
title_sort drought, climate change, and dryland wheat yield response: an econometric approach
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7399810/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32708323
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17145264
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