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Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy

Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissib...

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Autores principales: Maugeri, Andrea, Barchitta, Martina, Battiato, Sebastiano, Agodi, Antonella
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7400186/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32660125
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17144964
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author Maugeri, Andrea
Barchitta, Martina
Battiato, Sebastiano
Agodi, Antonella
author_facet Maugeri, Andrea
Barchitta, Martina
Battiato, Sebastiano
Agodi, Antonella
author_sort Maugeri, Andrea
collection PubMed
description Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and ascertainment of cases make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of restrictions. Here, we employed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, working on the number of reported patients in intensive care unit (ICU) and deaths in Sicily (Italy), from 24 February to 13 April. Overall, we obtained a good fit between estimated and reported data, with a fraction of unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases (18.4%; 95%CI = 0–34.0%) before 10 March lockdown. Interestingly, we estimated that transmission rate in the community was reduced by 32% (95%CI = 23–42%) after the first set of restrictions, and by 80% (95%CI = 70–89%) after those adopted on 23 March. Thus, our estimates delineated the characteristics of SARS-CoV2 epidemic before restrictions taking into account unreported data. Moreover, our findings suggested that transmission rates were reduced after the adoption of control measures. However, we cannot evaluate whether part of this reduction might be attributable to other unmeasured factors, and hence further research and more accurate data are needed to understand the extent to which restrictions contributed to the epidemic control.
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spelling pubmed-74001862020-08-23 Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy Maugeri, Andrea Barchitta, Martina Battiato, Sebastiano Agodi, Antonella Int J Environ Res Public Health Article Italy was the first country in Europe which imposed control measures of travel restrictions, quarantine and contact precautions to tackle the epidemic spread of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) in all its regions. While such efforts are still ongoing, uncertainties regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and ascertainment of cases make it difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of restrictions. Here, we employed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SEIRD) model to assess SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics, working on the number of reported patients in intensive care unit (ICU) and deaths in Sicily (Italy), from 24 February to 13 April. Overall, we obtained a good fit between estimated and reported data, with a fraction of unreported SARS-CoV-2 cases (18.4%; 95%CI = 0–34.0%) before 10 March lockdown. Interestingly, we estimated that transmission rate in the community was reduced by 32% (95%CI = 23–42%) after the first set of restrictions, and by 80% (95%CI = 70–89%) after those adopted on 23 March. Thus, our estimates delineated the characteristics of SARS-CoV2 epidemic before restrictions taking into account unreported data. Moreover, our findings suggested that transmission rates were reduced after the adoption of control measures. However, we cannot evaluate whether part of this reduction might be attributable to other unmeasured factors, and hence further research and more accurate data are needed to understand the extent to which restrictions contributed to the epidemic control. MDPI 2020-07-09 2020-07 /pmc/articles/PMC7400186/ /pubmed/32660125 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17144964 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Maugeri, Andrea
Barchitta, Martina
Battiato, Sebastiano
Agodi, Antonella
Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy
title Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy
title_full Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy
title_fullStr Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy
title_full_unstemmed Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy
title_short Modeling the Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak in Sicily, Italy
title_sort modeling the novel coronavirus (sars-cov-2) outbreak in sicily, italy
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7400186/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32660125
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17144964
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