The Potential Impacts of Urban and Transit Planning Scenarios for 2031 on Car Use and Active Transportation in a Metropolitan Area

Land use and transportation scenarios can help evaluate the potential impacts of urban compact or transit-oriented development (TOD). Future scenarios have been based on hypothetical developments or strategic planning but both have rarely been compared. We developed scenarios for an entire metropolitan area (Montreal, Canada) based on current strategic planning documents and contrasted their potential impacts on car use and active transportation with those of hypothetical scenarios. We collected and analyzed available urban planning documents and obtained key stakeholders’ appreciation of transportation projects on their likelihood of implementation. We allocated 2006–2031 population growth according to recent trends (Business As Usual, BAU) or alternative scenarios (current planning; all in TOD areas; all in central zone). A large-scale and representative Origin-Destination Household Travel Survey was used to measure travel behavior. To estimate distances travelled by mode, in 2031, we used a mode choice model and a simpler method based on the 2008 modal share across population strata. Compared to the BAU, the scenario that allocated all the new population in already dense areas and that also included numerous public transit projects (unlikely to be implemented in 2031), was associated with greatest impacts. Nonetheless such major changes had relatively minor impacts, inducing at most a 15% reduction in distances travel by car and a 28% increase in distances walked, compared to a BAU. Strategies that directly target the reduction of car use, not considered in the scenarios assessed, may be necessary to induce substantial changes in a metropolitan area.