Baseline HOMA IR and Circulating FGF21 Levels Predict NAFLD Improvement in Patients Undergoing a Low Carbohydrate Dietary Intervention for Weight Loss: A Prospective Observational Pilot Study

Background: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a major cause of liver disease. Very low-calorie ketogenic diets (VLCKD) represent a feasible treatment as they induce profound weight loss and insulin resistance (IR) improvement. Despite the recognized benefits on NAFLD deriving from pharmacological administration of fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21), whose endogenous counterpart is a marker of liver injury, little is known about its physiology in humans. Aim: To identify predictors of NAFLD improvement as reflected by the reduction of the non-invasive screening tool hepatic steatosis index (HSI) in obese patients undergoing a weight loss program. Methods: Sixty-five obese patients underwent a 90-day dietary program consisting of a VLCKD followed by a hypocaloric low carbohydrate diet (LCD). Anthropometric parameters, body composition, and blood and urine chemistry were assessed. Results: Unlike most parameters improving mainly during the VLCKD, the deepest HSI change was observed after the LCD (p = 0.02 and p < 0.0001, respectively). Baseline HOMA-IR and serum FGF21 were found to be positive (R = 0.414, p = 0009) and negative (R = 0.364, p = 0.04) independent predictors of HSI reduction, respectively. Conclusions: We suggest that patients with IR and NAFLD derive greater benefit from a VLCKD, and we propose a possible role of human FGF21 in mediating NAFLD amelioration following nutritional manipulation.