Environmental Factors and Hyperacute Stroke Care Activity During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Concerns have arisen regarding patient access and delivery of acute stroke care during the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigated key population level events on activity of the three hyperacute stroke units (HASUs) within Greater Manchester and East Cheshire (GM & EC), whilst adjusting for environmental factors. METHODS: Weekly stroke admission & discharge counts in the three HASUs were collected locally from Emergency Department (ED) data and Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme core dataset prior to, and during the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic (Jan 2020 to May 2020). Whilst adjusting for local traffic-related air pollution and ambient measurement, an interrupted time-series analysis using a segmented generalised linear model investigated key population level events on the rate of stroke team ED assessments, admissions for stroke, referrals for transient ischaemic attack (TIA), and stroke discharges. RESULTS: The median total number of ED stroke assessments, admissions, TIA referrals, and discharges across the three HASU sites prior to the first UK COVID-19 death were 150, 114, 69, and 76 per week. The stable weekly trend in ED assessments and stroke admissions decreased by approximately 16% (and 21% for TIAs) between first UK hospital COVID-19 death (5(th) March) and the implementation of the Act-FAST campaign (6(th) April) where a modest 4% and 5% increase per week was observed. TIA referrals increased post Government intervention (23(rd) March), without fully returning to the numbers observed in January and February. Trends in discharges from stroke units appeared unaffected within the study period reported here. CONCLUSION: Despite adjustment for environmental factors stroke activity was temporarily modified by the COVID-19 pandemic. Underlying motivations within the population are still not clear. This raises concerns that patients may have avoided urgent health care risking poorer short and long-term health outcomes.