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Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe
As rates of new COVID-19 cases decline across Europe due to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. Here, we use mobility and case data to quant...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
American Association for the Advancement of Science
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7402626/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32680881 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abc5096 |
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author | Ruktanonchai, N. W. Floyd, J. R. Lai, S. Ruktanonchai, C. W. Sadilek, A. Rente-Lourenco, P. Ben, X. Carioli, A. Gwinn, J. Steele, J. E. Prosper, O. Schneider, A. Oplinger, A. Eastham, P. Tatem, A. J. |
author_facet | Ruktanonchai, N. W. Floyd, J. R. Lai, S. Ruktanonchai, C. W. Sadilek, A. Rente-Lourenco, P. Ben, X. Carioli, A. Gwinn, J. Steele, J. E. Prosper, O. Schneider, A. Oplinger, A. Eastham, P. Tatem, A. J. |
author_sort | Ruktanonchai, N. W. |
collection | PubMed |
description | As rates of new COVID-19 cases decline across Europe due to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. Here, we use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we found that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe meant half as many lockdown periods were required to end community transmission continent-wide. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7402626 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | American Association for the Advancement of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-74026262020-08-19 Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe Ruktanonchai, N. W. Floyd, J. R. Lai, S. Ruktanonchai, C. W. Sadilek, A. Rente-Lourenco, P. Ben, X. Carioli, A. Gwinn, J. Steele, J. E. Prosper, O. Schneider, A. Oplinger, A. Eastham, P. Tatem, A. J. Science Research Articles As rates of new COVID-19 cases decline across Europe due to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. Here, we use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we found that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe meant half as many lockdown periods were required to end community transmission continent-wide. American Association for the Advancement of Science 2020-07-17 /pmc/articles/PMC7402626/ /pubmed/32680881 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abc5096 Text en Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY). https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Research Articles Ruktanonchai, N. W. Floyd, J. R. Lai, S. Ruktanonchai, C. W. Sadilek, A. Rente-Lourenco, P. Ben, X. Carioli, A. Gwinn, J. Steele, J. E. Prosper, O. Schneider, A. Oplinger, A. Eastham, P. Tatem, A. J. Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe |
title | Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe |
title_full | Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe |
title_fullStr | Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe |
title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe |
title_short | Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe |
title_sort | assessing the impact of coordinated covid-19 exit strategies across europe |
topic | Research Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7402626/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32680881 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.abc5096 |
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