The introduction of population migration to SEIAR for COVID-19 epidemic modeling with an efficient intervention strategy

In this paper, we present a mathematical model of an infectious disease according to the characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed enhanced model, which will be referred to as the SEIR (Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered) model with population migration, is inspired by the role th...

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Autores principales: Chen, Min, Li, Miao, Hao, Yixue, Liu, Zhongchun, Hu, Long, Wang, Lin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Published by Elsevier B.V. 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7406520/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834796
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.inffus.2020.08.002
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author Chen, Min
Li, Miao
Hao, Yixue
Liu, Zhongchun
Hu, Long
Wang, Lin
author_facet Chen, Min
Li, Miao
Hao, Yixue
Liu, Zhongchun
Hu, Long
Wang, Lin
author_sort Chen, Min
collection PubMed
description In this paper, we present a mathematical model of an infectious disease according to the characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed enhanced model, which will be referred to as the SEIR (Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered) model with population migration, is inspired by the role that asymptomatic infected individuals, as well as population movements can play a crucial role in spreading the virus. In the model, the infected and the basic reproduction numbers are compared under the influence of intervention policies. The experimental simulation results show the impact of social distancing and migration-in rates on reducing the total number of infections and the basic reproductions. And then, the importance of controlling the number of migration-in people and the policy of restricting residents’ movements in preventing the spread of COVID-19 pandemic are verified.
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spelling pubmed-74065202020-08-06 The introduction of population migration to SEIAR for COVID-19 epidemic modeling with an efficient intervention strategy Chen, Min Li, Miao Hao, Yixue Liu, Zhongchun Hu, Long Wang, Lin Inf Fusion Article In this paper, we present a mathematical model of an infectious disease according to the characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed enhanced model, which will be referred to as the SEIR (Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Recovered) model with population migration, is inspired by the role that asymptomatic infected individuals, as well as population movements can play a crucial role in spreading the virus. In the model, the infected and the basic reproduction numbers are compared under the influence of intervention policies. The experimental simulation results show the impact of social distancing and migration-in rates on reducing the total number of infections and the basic reproductions. And then, the importance of controlling the number of migration-in people and the policy of restricting residents’ movements in preventing the spread of COVID-19 pandemic are verified. Published by Elsevier B.V. 2020-12 2020-08-06 /pmc/articles/PMC7406520/ /pubmed/32834796 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.inffus.2020.08.002 Text en © 2020 Published by Elsevier B.V. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Chen, Min
Li, Miao
Hao, Yixue
Liu, Zhongchun
Hu, Long
Wang, Lin
The introduction of population migration to SEIAR for COVID-19 epidemic modeling with an efficient intervention strategy
title The introduction of population migration to SEIAR for COVID-19 epidemic modeling with an efficient intervention strategy
title_full The introduction of population migration to SEIAR for COVID-19 epidemic modeling with an efficient intervention strategy
title_fullStr The introduction of population migration to SEIAR for COVID-19 epidemic modeling with an efficient intervention strategy
title_full_unstemmed The introduction of population migration to SEIAR for COVID-19 epidemic modeling with an efficient intervention strategy
title_short The introduction of population migration to SEIAR for COVID-19 epidemic modeling with an efficient intervention strategy
title_sort introduction of population migration to seiar for covid-19 epidemic modeling with an efficient intervention strategy
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7406520/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834796
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.inffus.2020.08.002
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