Factors for Predicting Noninvasive Ventilation Failure in Elderly Patients with Respiratory Failure

Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) is useful when managing critically ill patients. However, it is not easy to apply to elderly patients, particularly those with pneumonia, due to the possibility of NIV failure and the increased mortality caused by delayed intubation. In this prospective observational study, we explored whether NIV was appropriate for elderly patients with pneumonia, defined factors that independently predicted NIV failure, and built an optimal model for prediction of such failure. We evaluated 78 patients with a median age of 77 years. A low PaCO(2) level, a high heart rate, and the presence of pneumonia were statistically significant independent predictors of NIV failure. The predictive power for NIV failure of Model III (pneumonia, PaCO(2) level, and heart rate) was better than that of Model I (pneumonia alone). Considering the improvement in parameters, patients with successful NIV exhibited significantly improved heart rates, arterial pH and PaCO(2) levels, and patients with NIV failure exhibited a significantly improved PaCO(2) level only. In conclusion, NIV is reasonable to apply to elderly patients with pneumonia, but should be done with caution. For the early identification of NIV failure, the heart rate and arterial blood gas parameters should be monitored within 2 h after NIV commencement.