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Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus and Its European Distribution in Ticks and Endothermic Mammals

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is the most common viral tick-borne disease in Europe causing thousands of human infections every year. Available risk maps in Europe are solely based on human incidences, but often underestimate areas with TBE virus circulation as shown by several autochthonous cases d...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Walter, Melanie, Vogelgesang, Janna R., Rubel, Franz, Brugger, Katharina
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7409098/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32708877
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms8071065
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author Walter, Melanie
Vogelgesang, Janna R.
Rubel, Franz
Brugger, Katharina
author_facet Walter, Melanie
Vogelgesang, Janna R.
Rubel, Franz
Brugger, Katharina
author_sort Walter, Melanie
collection PubMed
description Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is the most common viral tick-borne disease in Europe causing thousands of human infections every year. Available risk maps in Europe are solely based on human incidences, but often underestimate areas with TBE virus circulation as shown by several autochthonous cases detected outside known risk areas. A dataset of more than 1300 georeferenced TBE virus detections in ticks and mammals except for humans was compiled and used to estimate the probability of TBE virus presence in Europe. For this, a random forests model was implemented using temperature- and precipitation-dependent bioclimatic variables of the WorldClim dataset, altitude, as well as land cover of the ESA GlobCover dataset. The highest probabilities of TBE virus presence were identified in Central Europe, in the south of the Nordic countries, and in the Baltic countries. The model performance was evaluated by an out-of-bag error (OOB) of 0.174 and a high area under the curve value (AUC) of 0.905. The TBE virus presence maps may subsequently be used to estimate the risk of TBE virus infections in humans and can support decision-makers to identify TBE risk areas and to encourage people to take appropriate actions against tick bites and TBE virus infections.
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spelling pubmed-74090982020-08-26 Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus and Its European Distribution in Ticks and Endothermic Mammals Walter, Melanie Vogelgesang, Janna R. Rubel, Franz Brugger, Katharina Microorganisms Article Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is the most common viral tick-borne disease in Europe causing thousands of human infections every year. Available risk maps in Europe are solely based on human incidences, but often underestimate areas with TBE virus circulation as shown by several autochthonous cases detected outside known risk areas. A dataset of more than 1300 georeferenced TBE virus detections in ticks and mammals except for humans was compiled and used to estimate the probability of TBE virus presence in Europe. For this, a random forests model was implemented using temperature- and precipitation-dependent bioclimatic variables of the WorldClim dataset, altitude, as well as land cover of the ESA GlobCover dataset. The highest probabilities of TBE virus presence were identified in Central Europe, in the south of the Nordic countries, and in the Baltic countries. The model performance was evaluated by an out-of-bag error (OOB) of 0.174 and a high area under the curve value (AUC) of 0.905. The TBE virus presence maps may subsequently be used to estimate the risk of TBE virus infections in humans and can support decision-makers to identify TBE risk areas and to encourage people to take appropriate actions against tick bites and TBE virus infections. MDPI 2020-07-17 /pmc/articles/PMC7409098/ /pubmed/32708877 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms8071065 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Walter, Melanie
Vogelgesang, Janna R.
Rubel, Franz
Brugger, Katharina
Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus and Its European Distribution in Ticks and Endothermic Mammals
title Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus and Its European Distribution in Ticks and Endothermic Mammals
title_full Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus and Its European Distribution in Ticks and Endothermic Mammals
title_fullStr Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus and Its European Distribution in Ticks and Endothermic Mammals
title_full_unstemmed Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus and Its European Distribution in Ticks and Endothermic Mammals
title_short Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus and Its European Distribution in Ticks and Endothermic Mammals
title_sort tick-borne encephalitis virus and its european distribution in ticks and endothermic mammals
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7409098/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32708877
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms8071065
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