Predictors of radiological aggravations of pulmonary MAC disease

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The number of patients with pulmonary Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) disease is increasing worldwide, especially among middle-aged women and never-smokers. However, little is known about the factors causing exacerbations of pulmonary MAC disease in untreated patients. The aim of the present study was to identify the predictors of radiological aggravations of pulmonary MAC disease. METHODS: From April 2011 to December 2018, 238 MAC patients at our institute were newly diagnosed with pulmonary MAC disease according to the 2007 American Thoracic Society/Infectious Disease Society guideline. Their medical records were examined retrospectively for their clinical findings. The radiological findings at the time of the diagnosis and 1 year later were evaluated. To identify the predictors of radiological aggravation, multivariable analysis was performed with the data of 167 treatment-naïve patients. RESULTS: Female, never-smoker, and nodular/bronchiectatic (NB) type were predominant in patients with pulmonary MAC disease. Univariate analysis of data from treatment-naïve subjects showed that no lung diseases other than MAC, extensive radiological findings, and a positive acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear were significantly associated with radiological aggravations. On multivariate analysis, the radiological factor (larger affected area) and absence of other lung disease were significantly associated with radiological aggravations. In particular, the presence of abnormal shadows in more than 3 lobes was significantly associated with radiological aggravations. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the presence of extensive radiological findings and the absence of lung diseases other than MAC were predictors of radiological aggravations of treatment-naïve pulmonary MAC disease. In particular, the presence of abnormal shadows in more than 3 lobes was significantly associated with radiological aggravations.