Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios

COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels....

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Röst, Gergely, Bartha, Ferenc A., Bogya, Norbert, Boldog, Péter, Dénes, Attila, Ferenci, Tamás, Horváth, Krisztina J., Juhász, Attila, Nagy, Csilla, Tekeli, Tamás, Vizi, Zsolt, Oroszi, Beatrix
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7412537/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32629880
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v12070708
Descripción
Sumario:COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.

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