Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios

COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels....

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Röst, Gergely, Bartha, Ferenc A., Bogya, Norbert, Boldog, Péter, Dénes, Attila, Ferenci, Tamás, Horváth, Krisztina J., Juhász, Attila, Nagy, Csilla, Tekeli, Tamás, Vizi, Zsolt, Oroszi, Beatrix
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7412537/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32629880
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v12070708
_version_ 1783568630964813824
author Röst, Gergely
Bartha, Ferenc A.
Bogya, Norbert
Boldog, Péter
Dénes, Attila
Ferenci, Tamás
Horváth, Krisztina J.
Juhász, Attila
Nagy, Csilla
Tekeli, Tamás
Vizi, Zsolt
Oroszi, Beatrix
author_facet Röst, Gergely
Bartha, Ferenc A.
Bogya, Norbert
Boldog, Péter
Dénes, Attila
Ferenci, Tamás
Horváth, Krisztina J.
Juhász, Attila
Nagy, Csilla
Tekeli, Tamás
Vizi, Zsolt
Oroszi, Beatrix
author_sort Röst, Gergely
collection PubMed
description COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7412537
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2020
publisher MDPI
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-74125372020-08-26 Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios Röst, Gergely Bartha, Ferenc A. Bogya, Norbert Boldog, Péter Dénes, Attila Ferenci, Tamás Horváth, Krisztina J. Juhász, Attila Nagy, Csilla Tekeli, Tamás Vizi, Zsolt Oroszi, Beatrix Viruses Article COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed. MDPI 2020-06-30 /pmc/articles/PMC7412537/ /pubmed/32629880 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v12070708 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Röst, Gergely
Bartha, Ferenc A.
Bogya, Norbert
Boldog, Péter
Dénes, Attila
Ferenci, Tamás
Horváth, Krisztina J.
Juhász, Attila
Nagy, Csilla
Tekeli, Tamás
Vizi, Zsolt
Oroszi, Beatrix
Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios
title Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios
title_full Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios
title_fullStr Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios
title_full_unstemmed Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios
title_short Early Phase of the COVID-19 Outbreak in Hungary and Post-Lockdown Scenarios
title_sort early phase of the covid-19 outbreak in hungary and post-lockdown scenarios
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7412537/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32629880
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/v12070708
work_keys_str_mv AT rostgergely earlyphaseofthecovid19outbreakinhungaryandpostlockdownscenarios
AT barthaferenca earlyphaseofthecovid19outbreakinhungaryandpostlockdownscenarios
AT bogyanorbert earlyphaseofthecovid19outbreakinhungaryandpostlockdownscenarios
AT boldogpeter earlyphaseofthecovid19outbreakinhungaryandpostlockdownscenarios
AT denesattila earlyphaseofthecovid19outbreakinhungaryandpostlockdownscenarios
AT ferencitamas earlyphaseofthecovid19outbreakinhungaryandpostlockdownscenarios
AT horvathkrisztinaj earlyphaseofthecovid19outbreakinhungaryandpostlockdownscenarios
AT juhaszattila earlyphaseofthecovid19outbreakinhungaryandpostlockdownscenarios
AT nagycsilla earlyphaseofthecovid19outbreakinhungaryandpostlockdownscenarios
AT tekelitamas earlyphaseofthecovid19outbreakinhungaryandpostlockdownscenarios
AT vizizsolt earlyphaseofthecovid19outbreakinhungaryandpostlockdownscenarios
AT oroszibeatrix earlyphaseofthecovid19outbreakinhungaryandpostlockdownscenarios

Ejemplares similares