An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic

We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrati...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Colombo, Rinaldo M., Garavello, Mauro, Marcellini, Francesca, Rossi, Elena
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2020
Materias:
Research
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7414273/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834920
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4
Descripción
Sumario:We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrations are used to illustrate the adherence of the evolutions described by the model to specific well known real features of the present pandemic. In particular, this model is consistent with the well known relevance of quarantine, shows the dramatic role of care houses and accounts for the increase in the death toll when spatial movements are not constrained. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4) contains supplementary material.

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