An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic

We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrati...

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Autores principales: Colombo, Rinaldo M., Garavello, Mauro, Marcellini, Francesca, Rossi, Elena
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2020
Materias:
Research
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7414273/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834920
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4
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author Colombo, Rinaldo M.
Garavello, Mauro
Marcellini, Francesca
Rossi, Elena
author_facet Colombo, Rinaldo M.
Garavello, Mauro
Marcellini, Francesca
Rossi, Elena
author_sort Colombo, Rinaldo M.
collection PubMed
description We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrations are used to illustrate the adherence of the evolutions described by the model to specific well known real features of the present pandemic. In particular, this model is consistent with the well known relevance of quarantine, shows the dramatic role of care houses and accounts for the increase in the death toll when spatial movements are not constrained. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4) contains supplementary material.
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spelling pubmed-74142732020-08-10 An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic Colombo, Rinaldo M. Garavello, Mauro Marcellini, Francesca Rossi, Elena J Math Ind Research We present an epidemic model capable of describing key features of the Covid-19 pandemic. While capturing several qualitative properties of the virus spreading, it allows to compute the basic reproduction number, the number of deaths due to the virus and various other statistics. Numerical integrations are used to illustrate the adherence of the evolutions described by the model to specific well known real features of the present pandemic. In particular, this model is consistent with the well known relevance of quarantine, shows the dramatic role of care houses and accounts for the increase in the death toll when spatial movements are not constrained. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4) contains supplementary material. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2020-08-08 2020 /pmc/articles/PMC7414273/ /pubmed/32834920 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Research
Colombo, Rinaldo M.
Garavello, Mauro
Marcellini, Francesca
Rossi, Elena
An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic
title An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic
title_full An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic
title_fullStr An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic
title_full_unstemmed An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic
title_short An age and space structured SIR model describing the Covid-19 pandemic
title_sort age and space structured sir model describing the covid-19 pandemic
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7414273/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834920
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13362-020-00090-4
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