Spatio-temporal variation of ecosystem services value in the Northern Tianshan Mountain Economic zone from 1980 to 2030

Rapid agricultural land expansion and urbanization have accelerated land use and land cover changes (LUCC) in the Northern Tianshan Mountain Economic Zone and have significantly impacted on the ecosystem services (ESs). However, the spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem service value (ESV) to LUCC are not well understood. Based on the land use and land cover (LULC) data from 1980 to 2019, we used a CA-Markov model to predict LUCC in 2020 and 2030, assess the spatial-temporal changes of ESV and LULC during 1980–2030, and explore the elastic response of ESV to LUCC. We found that cropland and built-up land expanded rapidly by 34.38% and 196.66%, respectively between 1980 and 2030, while grassland and unutilized land decreased significantly by 11.45% and 10.26%, respectively. The ESV of water body, cropland, grassland and forestland accounts for more than 90% of the total ESV. Our research shows that the ESV of cropland increased 32 million yuan from 1980 to 2030, mainly due to the expansion of cropland area. However, the loss caused by the reduction of grassland area was 45 million yuan. Water conservation, waste treatment, soil formation and retention, and biodiversity conservation are the primary ecosystem service function, accounting for 71.82% of the total ESV. Despite notable increases in the ESV from 1980 to 2010, grassland degradation still remains a main ecological and environmental issue from 2010 to 2030. The results suggest that effective land use policies should be developed to control the expansion of croplands and protect water body, grassland and forestland to maintain more sustainable ESs.