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An equitable redistribution of unburnable carbon

The rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is critical to achieving a well-below 2 °C world. An emerging body of research explores the implications of this phase-out for fossil fuel producing countries, including the perceived tension between least-cost and most-equitable pathways. Here we present modellin...

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Autores principales: Pye, Steve, Bradley, Siân, Hughes, Nick, Price, James, Welsby, Daniel, Ekins, Paul
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7414863/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32770062
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17679-3
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author Pye, Steve
Bradley, Siân
Hughes, Nick
Price, James
Welsby, Daniel
Ekins, Paul
author_facet Pye, Steve
Bradley, Siân
Hughes, Nick
Price, James
Welsby, Daniel
Ekins, Paul
author_sort Pye, Steve
collection PubMed
description The rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is critical to achieving a well-below 2 °C world. An emerging body of research explores the implications of this phase-out for fossil fuel producing countries, including the perceived tension between least-cost and most-equitable pathways. Here we present modelling, which re-distributes remaining fossil fuel production towards developing countries. We show that redistribution is challenging due to large economic disincentives required to shift production, and offers limited economic benefit for developing countries given the long timeframe required to effect change, and the wider impact of rising fuel import and energy systems costs. Furthermore, increases in production shares are offset by shrinking markets for fossil fuels, which are part dependent on carbon capture and storage (CCS). We argue that while there is a weak economic case for redistribution, there is a clear role for equity principles in guiding the development of supply side policy and in development assistance.
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spelling pubmed-74148632020-08-17 An equitable redistribution of unburnable carbon Pye, Steve Bradley, Siân Hughes, Nick Price, James Welsby, Daniel Ekins, Paul Nat Commun Article The rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is critical to achieving a well-below 2 °C world. An emerging body of research explores the implications of this phase-out for fossil fuel producing countries, including the perceived tension between least-cost and most-equitable pathways. Here we present modelling, which re-distributes remaining fossil fuel production towards developing countries. We show that redistribution is challenging due to large economic disincentives required to shift production, and offers limited economic benefit for developing countries given the long timeframe required to effect change, and the wider impact of rising fuel import and energy systems costs. Furthermore, increases in production shares are offset by shrinking markets for fossil fuels, which are part dependent on carbon capture and storage (CCS). We argue that while there is a weak economic case for redistribution, there is a clear role for equity principles in guiding the development of supply side policy and in development assistance. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-08-07 /pmc/articles/PMC7414863/ /pubmed/32770062 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17679-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Pye, Steve
Bradley, Siân
Hughes, Nick
Price, James
Welsby, Daniel
Ekins, Paul
An equitable redistribution of unburnable carbon
title An equitable redistribution of unburnable carbon
title_full An equitable redistribution of unburnable carbon
title_fullStr An equitable redistribution of unburnable carbon
title_full_unstemmed An equitable redistribution of unburnable carbon
title_short An equitable redistribution of unburnable carbon
title_sort equitable redistribution of unburnable carbon
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7414863/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32770062
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17679-3
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