Risk of relapse and death from colorectal cancer and its related factors using non-Markovian Multi-State model

AIM: This study aimed at modeling the risk of local relapse and death from colorectal cancer after the first treatment and its related factors using multi-state models. BACKGROUND: In cancer studies modeling the course of disease regarding events which happen to patients is of great importance. By considering death as the final endpoint while incorporating the intermediate events, multi-state models have been developed. METHODS: This was a historical cohort study in which 235 patients with colorectal cancer, who referred to Omid Hospital in Mashhad between 2006 and 2011, were studied and followed up until 2017. The transition probabilities to death due to metastasis with or without experiencing local relapse and variables related to them were determined using the non-Markovian multi-state model in three states of disease, local relapse and death. RESULTS: The probability of not experiencing either of the events, just relapse and death in the first 5 years were 0.45, 0.09 and 0.46 respectively. If patients did not experience any event in the first year of treatment, the probability of relapse and death before the fifth year were 0.04 and 0.33 respectively and if they did experience relapse during this time, the probability of death by the fifth year was 0.62. The stage of cancer was associated with relapse and death, while ethnicity and history of addiction were related to death without relapse and BMI had a significant relationship with death after relapse (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Risk of death in patients with colorectal cancer depends on local relapse and the time between them.