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Is Colombia an example of successful containment of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic? A critical analysis of the epidemiological data, March to July 2020

BACKGROUND: Colombia detected its first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case on March 2, 2020. From March 22 to April 25, it implemented a national lockdown that, apparently, allowed the country to keep a low incidence and mortality rate up to mid-May. Forced by the economic losses, the governme...

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Autores principales: De la Hoz-Restrepo, Fernando, Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J., De la Hoz-Gomez, Juan Fernando, De la Hoz, Alejandro, Gómez Del Corral, Luz, Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7417900/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32791206
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.017
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author De la Hoz-Restrepo, Fernando
Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J.
De la Hoz-Gomez, Juan Fernando
De la Hoz, Alejandro
Gómez Del Corral, Luz
Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson
author_facet De la Hoz-Restrepo, Fernando
Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J.
De la Hoz-Gomez, Juan Fernando
De la Hoz, Alejandro
Gómez Del Corral, Luz
Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson
author_sort De la Hoz-Restrepo, Fernando
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Colombia detected its first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case on March 2, 2020. From March 22 to April 25, it implemented a national lockdown that, apparently, allowed the country to keep a low incidence and mortality rate up to mid-May. Forced by the economic losses, the government then opened many commercial activities, which was followed by an increase in cases and deaths. This paper presents a critical analysis of the Colombian surveillance data in order to identify strengths and pitfalls of the control measures. METHODS: A descriptive analysis of PCR-confirmed cases between March and July 25 was performed. Data were described according to the level of measurement. Incidence and mortality rates of COVID-19 were estimated by age, sex, and geographical area. Sampling rates for suspected cases were estimated by geographical area, and the potential for case underestimation was assessed using sampling differences. RESULTS: By July 25, Colombia (population 50 372 424) had reported 240 745 cases and 8269 deaths (case fatality rate of 3.4%). A total of 1 370 271 samples had been analyzed (27 405 samples per million people), with a positivity rate of 17%. Sampling rates per million varied by region from 2664 to 158 681 per million, and consequently the incidence and mortality rates also varied. Due to geographical variations in surveillance capacity, Colombia may have overlooked up to 82% of the actual cases. CONCLUSION: Colombia has a lower case and mortality incidence compared to other South American countries. This may be an effect of the lockdown, but may also be attributed, to some extent, to geographical differences in surveillance capacity. Indigenous populations with little health infrastructure have been hit the hardest.
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spelling pubmed-74179002020-08-11 Is Colombia an example of successful containment of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic? A critical analysis of the epidemiological data, March to July 2020 De la Hoz-Restrepo, Fernando Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. De la Hoz-Gomez, Juan Fernando De la Hoz, Alejandro Gómez Del Corral, Luz Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson Int J Infect Dis Article BACKGROUND: Colombia detected its first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case on March 2, 2020. From March 22 to April 25, it implemented a national lockdown that, apparently, allowed the country to keep a low incidence and mortality rate up to mid-May. Forced by the economic losses, the government then opened many commercial activities, which was followed by an increase in cases and deaths. This paper presents a critical analysis of the Colombian surveillance data in order to identify strengths and pitfalls of the control measures. METHODS: A descriptive analysis of PCR-confirmed cases between March and July 25 was performed. Data were described according to the level of measurement. Incidence and mortality rates of COVID-19 were estimated by age, sex, and geographical area. Sampling rates for suspected cases were estimated by geographical area, and the potential for case underestimation was assessed using sampling differences. RESULTS: By July 25, Colombia (population 50 372 424) had reported 240 745 cases and 8269 deaths (case fatality rate of 3.4%). A total of 1 370 271 samples had been analyzed (27 405 samples per million people), with a positivity rate of 17%. Sampling rates per million varied by region from 2664 to 158 681 per million, and consequently the incidence and mortality rates also varied. Due to geographical variations in surveillance capacity, Colombia may have overlooked up to 82% of the actual cases. CONCLUSION: Colombia has a lower case and mortality incidence compared to other South American countries. This may be an effect of the lockdown, but may also be attributed, to some extent, to geographical differences in surveillance capacity. Indigenous populations with little health infrastructure have been hit the hardest. The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. 2020-10 2020-08-11 /pmc/articles/PMC7417900/ /pubmed/32791206 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.017 Text en © 2020 The Authors Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
De la Hoz-Restrepo, Fernando
Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J.
De la Hoz-Gomez, Juan Fernando
De la Hoz, Alejandro
Gómez Del Corral, Luz
Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson
Is Colombia an example of successful containment of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic? A critical analysis of the epidemiological data, March to July 2020
title Is Colombia an example of successful containment of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic? A critical analysis of the epidemiological data, March to July 2020
title_full Is Colombia an example of successful containment of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic? A critical analysis of the epidemiological data, March to July 2020
title_fullStr Is Colombia an example of successful containment of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic? A critical analysis of the epidemiological data, March to July 2020
title_full_unstemmed Is Colombia an example of successful containment of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic? A critical analysis of the epidemiological data, March to July 2020
title_short Is Colombia an example of successful containment of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic? A critical analysis of the epidemiological data, March to July 2020
title_sort is colombia an example of successful containment of the 2020 covid-19 pandemic? a critical analysis of the epidemiological data, march to july 2020
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7417900/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32791206
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.017
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