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A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics

The COVID-19 pandemic has already had a shocking impact on the lives of everybody on the planet. Here, we present a modification of the classical SI model, the Fractal Kinetics SI model which is in excellent agreement with the disease outbreak data available from the World Health Organization. The f...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Kosmidis, Kosmas, Macheras, Panos
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7418974/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32780754
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237304
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author Kosmidis, Kosmas
Macheras, Panos
author_facet Kosmidis, Kosmas
Macheras, Panos
author_sort Kosmidis, Kosmas
collection PubMed
description The COVID-19 pandemic has already had a shocking impact on the lives of everybody on the planet. Here, we present a modification of the classical SI model, the Fractal Kinetics SI model which is in excellent agreement with the disease outbreak data available from the World Health Organization. The fractal kinetic approach that we propose here originates from chemical kinetics and has successfully been used in the past to describe reaction dynamics when imperfect mixing and segregation of the reactants is important and affects the dynamics of the reaction. The model introduces a novel epidemiological parameter, the “fractal” exponent h which is introduced in order to account for the self-organization of the societies against the pandemic through social distancing, lockdowns and flight restrictions.
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spelling pubmed-74189742020-08-19 A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics Kosmidis, Kosmas Macheras, Panos PLoS One Research Article The COVID-19 pandemic has already had a shocking impact on the lives of everybody on the planet. Here, we present a modification of the classical SI model, the Fractal Kinetics SI model which is in excellent agreement with the disease outbreak data available from the World Health Organization. The fractal kinetic approach that we propose here originates from chemical kinetics and has successfully been used in the past to describe reaction dynamics when imperfect mixing and segregation of the reactants is important and affects the dynamics of the reaction. The model introduces a novel epidemiological parameter, the “fractal” exponent h which is introduced in order to account for the self-organization of the societies against the pandemic through social distancing, lockdowns and flight restrictions. Public Library of Science 2020-08-11 /pmc/articles/PMC7418974/ /pubmed/32780754 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237304 Text en © 2020 Kosmidis, Macheras http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Kosmidis, Kosmas
Macheras, Panos
A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics
title A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics
title_full A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics
title_fullStr A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics
title_full_unstemmed A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics
title_short A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics
title_sort fractal kinetics si model can explain the dynamics of covid-19 epidemics
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7418974/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32780754
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237304
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