Cargando…
A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics
The COVID-19 pandemic has already had a shocking impact on the lives of everybody on the planet. Here, we present a modification of the classical SI model, the Fractal Kinetics SI model which is in excellent agreement with the disease outbreak data available from the World Health Organization. The f...
Autores principales: | , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2020
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7418974/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32780754 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237304 |
_version_ | 1783569790468620288 |
---|---|
author | Kosmidis, Kosmas Macheras, Panos |
author_facet | Kosmidis, Kosmas Macheras, Panos |
author_sort | Kosmidis, Kosmas |
collection | PubMed |
description | The COVID-19 pandemic has already had a shocking impact on the lives of everybody on the planet. Here, we present a modification of the classical SI model, the Fractal Kinetics SI model which is in excellent agreement with the disease outbreak data available from the World Health Organization. The fractal kinetic approach that we propose here originates from chemical kinetics and has successfully been used in the past to describe reaction dynamics when imperfect mixing and segregation of the reactants is important and affects the dynamics of the reaction. The model introduces a novel epidemiological parameter, the “fractal” exponent h which is introduced in order to account for the self-organization of the societies against the pandemic through social distancing, lockdowns and flight restrictions. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7418974 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-74189742020-08-19 A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics Kosmidis, Kosmas Macheras, Panos PLoS One Research Article The COVID-19 pandemic has already had a shocking impact on the lives of everybody on the planet. Here, we present a modification of the classical SI model, the Fractal Kinetics SI model which is in excellent agreement with the disease outbreak data available from the World Health Organization. The fractal kinetic approach that we propose here originates from chemical kinetics and has successfully been used in the past to describe reaction dynamics when imperfect mixing and segregation of the reactants is important and affects the dynamics of the reaction. The model introduces a novel epidemiological parameter, the “fractal” exponent h which is introduced in order to account for the self-organization of the societies against the pandemic through social distancing, lockdowns and flight restrictions. Public Library of Science 2020-08-11 /pmc/articles/PMC7418974/ /pubmed/32780754 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237304 Text en © 2020 Kosmidis, Macheras http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Kosmidis, Kosmas Macheras, Panos A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics |
title | A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics |
title_full | A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics |
title_fullStr | A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics |
title_full_unstemmed | A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics |
title_short | A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics |
title_sort | fractal kinetics si model can explain the dynamics of covid-19 epidemics |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7418974/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32780754 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0237304 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT kosmidiskosmas afractalkineticssimodelcanexplainthedynamicsofcovid19epidemics AT macheraspanos afractalkineticssimodelcanexplainthedynamicsofcovid19epidemics AT kosmidiskosmas fractalkineticssimodelcanexplainthedynamicsofcovid19epidemics AT macheraspanos fractalkineticssimodelcanexplainthedynamicsofcovid19epidemics |