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Inversion of a SIR-based model: A critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic

Calibration of a SIR (Susceptibles–Infected–Recovered) model with official international data for the COVID-19 pandemics provides a good example of the difficulties inherent in the solution of inverse problems. Inverse modeling is set up in a framework of discrete inverse problems, which explicitly...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Comunian, Alessandro, Gaburro, Romina, Giudici, Mauro
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier B.V. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7419377/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834252
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2020.132674
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author Comunian, Alessandro
Gaburro, Romina
Giudici, Mauro
author_facet Comunian, Alessandro
Gaburro, Romina
Giudici, Mauro
author_sort Comunian, Alessandro
collection PubMed
description Calibration of a SIR (Susceptibles–Infected–Recovered) model with official international data for the COVID-19 pandemics provides a good example of the difficulties inherent in the solution of inverse problems. Inverse modeling is set up in a framework of discrete inverse problems, which explicitly considers the role and the relevance of data. Together with a physical vision of the model, the present work addresses numerically the issue of parameters calibration in SIR models, it discusses the uncertainties in the data provided by international authorities, how they influence the reliability of calibrated model parameters and, ultimately, of model predictions.
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spelling pubmed-74193772020-08-12 Inversion of a SIR-based model: A critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic Comunian, Alessandro Gaburro, Romina Giudici, Mauro Physica D Article Calibration of a SIR (Susceptibles–Infected–Recovered) model with official international data for the COVID-19 pandemics provides a good example of the difficulties inherent in the solution of inverse problems. Inverse modeling is set up in a framework of discrete inverse problems, which explicitly considers the role and the relevance of data. Together with a physical vision of the model, the present work addresses numerically the issue of parameters calibration in SIR models, it discusses the uncertainties in the data provided by international authorities, how they influence the reliability of calibrated model parameters and, ultimately, of model predictions. Elsevier B.V. 2020-12 2020-08-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7419377/ /pubmed/32834252 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2020.132674 Text en © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Comunian, Alessandro
Gaburro, Romina
Giudici, Mauro
Inversion of a SIR-based model: A critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic
title Inversion of a SIR-based model: A critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic
title_full Inversion of a SIR-based model: A critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic
title_fullStr Inversion of a SIR-based model: A critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic
title_full_unstemmed Inversion of a SIR-based model: A critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic
title_short Inversion of a SIR-based model: A critical analysis about the application to COVID-19 epidemic
title_sort inversion of a sir-based model: a critical analysis about the application to covid-19 epidemic
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7419377/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834252
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physd.2020.132674
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