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How relevant is the decision of containment measures against COVID-19 applied ahead of time?

The cumulative number of confirmed infected individuals by the new coronavirus outbreak until April 30th, 2020, is presented for the countries: Belgium, Brazil, United Kingdom (UK), and the United States of America (USA). After an initial period with a low incidence of newly infected people, a power...

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Autores principales: Brugnago, Eduardo L., da Silva, Rafael M., Manchein, Cesar, Beims, Marcus W.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7420611/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834648
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110164
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author Brugnago, Eduardo L.
da Silva, Rafael M.
Manchein, Cesar
Beims, Marcus W.
author_facet Brugnago, Eduardo L.
da Silva, Rafael M.
Manchein, Cesar
Beims, Marcus W.
author_sort Brugnago, Eduardo L.
collection PubMed
description The cumulative number of confirmed infected individuals by the new coronavirus outbreak until April 30th, 2020, is presented for the countries: Belgium, Brazil, United Kingdom (UK), and the United States of America (USA). After an initial period with a low incidence of newly infected people, a power-law growth of the number of confirmed cases is observed. For each country, a distinct growth exponent is obtained. For Belgium, UK, and USA, countries with a large number of infected people, after the power-law growth, a distinct behavior is obtained when approaching saturation. Brazil is still in the power-law regime. Such updates of the data and projections corroborate recent results regarding the power-law growth of the virus and their strong Distance Correlation between some countries around the world. Furthermore, we show that act in time is one of the most relevant non-pharmacological weapons that the health organizations have in the battle against the COVID-19, infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus. We study how changing the social distance and the number of daily tests to identify infected asymptomatic individuals can interfere in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 when applied in three distinct days, namely April 16th (early), April 30th (current), and May 14th (late). Results show that containment actions are necessary to flatten the curves and should be applied as soon as possible.
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spelling pubmed-74206112020-08-12 How relevant is the decision of containment measures against COVID-19 applied ahead of time? Brugnago, Eduardo L. da Silva, Rafael M. Manchein, Cesar Beims, Marcus W. Chaos Solitons Fractals Article The cumulative number of confirmed infected individuals by the new coronavirus outbreak until April 30th, 2020, is presented for the countries: Belgium, Brazil, United Kingdom (UK), and the United States of America (USA). After an initial period with a low incidence of newly infected people, a power-law growth of the number of confirmed cases is observed. For each country, a distinct growth exponent is obtained. For Belgium, UK, and USA, countries with a large number of infected people, after the power-law growth, a distinct behavior is obtained when approaching saturation. Brazil is still in the power-law regime. Such updates of the data and projections corroborate recent results regarding the power-law growth of the virus and their strong Distance Correlation between some countries around the world. Furthermore, we show that act in time is one of the most relevant non-pharmacological weapons that the health organizations have in the battle against the COVID-19, infectious disease caused by the most recently discovered coronavirus. We study how changing the social distance and the number of daily tests to identify infected asymptomatic individuals can interfere in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 when applied in three distinct days, namely April 16th (early), April 30th (current), and May 14th (late). Results show that containment actions are necessary to flatten the curves and should be applied as soon as possible. Elsevier Ltd. 2020-11 2020-08-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7420611/ /pubmed/32834648 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110164 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Brugnago, Eduardo L.
da Silva, Rafael M.
Manchein, Cesar
Beims, Marcus W.
How relevant is the decision of containment measures against COVID-19 applied ahead of time?
title How relevant is the decision of containment measures against COVID-19 applied ahead of time?
title_full How relevant is the decision of containment measures against COVID-19 applied ahead of time?
title_fullStr How relevant is the decision of containment measures against COVID-19 applied ahead of time?
title_full_unstemmed How relevant is the decision of containment measures against COVID-19 applied ahead of time?
title_short How relevant is the decision of containment measures against COVID-19 applied ahead of time?
title_sort how relevant is the decision of containment measures against covid-19 applied ahead of time?
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7420611/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834648
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110164
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