Cargando…

Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) emerged as a global threat in December 2019. As the epidemic progresses, disease modellers continue to focus on estimating the basic reproductive number [Formula: see text] —the average number of secondary cases caused by a primary case in an otherwise susceptible po...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales:	Park, Sang Woo, Bolker, Benjamin M., Champredon, David, Earn, David J. D., Li, Michael, Weitz, Joshua S., Grenfell, Bryan T., Dushoff, Jonathan
Formato:	Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:	English
Publicado:	The Royal Society 2020
Materias:	Life Sciences–Mathematics interface
Acceso en línea:	https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7423425/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32693748 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2020.0144

Ejemplares similares

Forward-looking serial intervals correctly link epidemic growth to reproduction numbers
por: Park, Sang Woo, et al.
Publicado: (2021)

The importance of the generation interval in investigating dynamics and control of new SARS-CoV-2 variants
por: Park, Sang Woo, et al.
Publicado: (2022)

Inferring generation-interval distributions from contact-tracing data
por: Park, Sang Woo, et al.
Publicado: (2020)

Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic
por: Earn, David J. D., et al.
Publicado: (2020)

Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka
por: Wagner, Caroline E., et al.
Publicado: (2020)

Age-dependence of healthcare interventions for COVID-19 in Ontario, Canada
por: Papst, Irena, et al.
Publicado: (2021)

Causes of delayed outbreak responses and their impacts on epidemic spread
por: Tao, Yun, et al.
Publicado: (2021)

Model-based analysis of an outbreak of bubonic plague in Cairo in 1801
por: Didelot, Xavier, et al.
Publicado: (2017)

Estimating the basic reproduction number at the beginning of an outbreak
por: Boonpatcharanon, Sawitree, et al.
Publicado: (2022)

Inferring the reproduction number using the renewal equation in heterogeneous epidemics
por: Green, William D., et al.
Publicado: (2022)

Managing the risk of a COVID-19 outbreak from border arrivals
por: Steyn, Nicholas, et al.
Publicado: (2021)

Risk mapping for COVID-19 outbreaks in Australia using mobility data
por: Zachreson, Cameron, et al.
Publicado: (2021)

Face masking and COVID-19: potential effects of variolation on transmission dynamics
por: Levine, Zachary, et al.
Publicado: (2022)

Structure, space and size: competing drivers of variation in urban and rural measles transmission
por: Korevaar, Hannah, et al.
Publicado: (2020)

A simple criterion to design optimal non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating epidemic outbreaks
por: Angulo, Marco Tulio, et al.
Publicado: (2021)

Correlation of viral loads in disease transmission could affect early estimates of the reproduction number
por: Harris, Thomas, et al.
Publicado: (2023)

Strategic decision making about travel during disease outbreaks: a game theoretical approach
por: Zhao, Shi, et al.
Publicado: (2018)

Symbolic transfer entropy reveals the age structure of pandemic influenza transmission from high-volume influenza-like illness data
por: Kissler, Stephen M., et al.
Publicado: (2020)

Inferring who-infected-whom-where in the 2016 Zika outbreak in Singapore—a spatio-temporal model
por: Prem, Kiesha, et al.
Publicado: (2019)

Effect of manual and digital contact tracing on COVID-19 outbreaks: a study on empirical contact data
por: Barrat, A., et al.
Publicado: (2021)

Uncertainty, epistemics and active inference
por: Parr, Thomas, et al.
Publicado: (2017)

Trajectory of individual immunity and vaccination required for SARS-CoV-2 community immunity: a conceptual investigation
por: Saad-Roy, Chadi M., et al.
Publicado: (2021)

Will an outbreak exceed available resources for control? Estimating the risk from invading pathogens using practical definitions of a severe epidemic
por: Thompson, R. N., et al.
Publicado: (2020)

Predicting re-emergence times of dengue epidemics at low reproductive numbers: DENV1 in Rio de Janeiro, 1986–1990
por: Subramanian, Rahul, et al.
Publicado: (2020)

Interventions targeting non-symptomatic cases can be important to prevent local outbreaks: SARS-CoV-2 as a case study
por: Lovell-Read, Francesca A., et al.
Publicado: (2021)

Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification using information geometry
por: Sharp, Jesse A., et al.
Publicado: (2022)

Uncertainty drives deviations in normative foraging decision strategies
por: Kilpatrick, Zachary P., et al.
Publicado: (2021)

An IDEA for Short Term Outbreak Projection: Nearcasting Using the Basic Reproduction Number
por: Fisman, David N., et al.
Publicado: (2013)

Niépce–Bell or Turing: how to test odour reproduction
por: Harel, David
Publicado: (2016)

High turnover drives prolonged persistence of influenza in managed pig herds
por: Pitzer, Virginia E., et al.
Publicado: (2016)

Inference and uncertainty quantification of stochastic gene expression via synthetic models
por: Öcal, Kaan, et al.
Publicado: (2022)

The Basic Reproduction Number as a Predictor for Epidemic Outbreaks in Temporal Networks
por: Holme, Petter, et al.
Publicado: (2015)

Bayesian uncertainty quantification for transmissibility of influenza, norovirus and Ebola using information geometry
por: House, Thomas, et al.
Publicado: (2016)

Uncertainty quantification of a three-dimensional in-stent restenosis model with surrogate modelling
por: Ye, Dongwei, et al.
Publicado: (2022)

Population implications of the deployment of novel universal vaccines against epidemic and pandemic influenza
por: Arinaminpathy, N., et al.
Publicado: (2020)

Context-dependent representation of within- and between-model uncertainty: aggregating probabilistic predictions in infectious disease epidemiology
por: Howerton, Emily, et al.
Publicado: (2023)

Evolution of reproductive strategies in incipient multicellularity
por: Gao, Yuanxiao, et al.
Publicado: (2022)

Computationally efficient framework for diagnosing, understanding and predicting biphasic population growth
por: Murphy, Ryan J., et al.
Publicado: (2022)

Epidemic dynamics, interactions and predictability of enteroviruses associated with hand, foot and mouth disease in Japan
por: Takahashi, Saki, et al.
Publicado: (2018)

Reproduction dynamics of planktonic microbial eukaryotes in the open ocean
por: Weinkauf, Manuel F. G., et al.
Publicado: (2022)

Cannot write session to /tmp/vufind_sessions/sess_4ctviec1d29rgo1lv3trrji0ms