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Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure

The goal of this work is to study the optimal controls for the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. We consider an age-structured SEIRQ model with quarantine compartment, where the controls are the quarantine entrance parameters. We then compare the optimal controls for different quarantine lengths and dist...

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Autores principales: Gondim, João A.M., Machado, Larissa
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7425681/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834650
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110166
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author Gondim, João A.M.
Machado, Larissa
author_facet Gondim, João A.M.
Machado, Larissa
author_sort Gondim, João A.M.
collection PubMed
description The goal of this work is to study the optimal controls for the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. We consider an age-structured SEIRQ model with quarantine compartment, where the controls are the quarantine entrance parameters. We then compare the optimal controls for different quarantine lengths and distributions of the total control cost by assessing their respective reductions in deaths in comparison to the same period without quarantine. The best strategy provides a calendar of when to relax the isolation measures for each age group. Finally, we analyse how a delay in the beginning of the quarantine affects this calendar by changing the initial conditions.
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spelling pubmed-74256812020-08-14 Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure Gondim, João A.M. Machado, Larissa Chaos Solitons Fractals Article The goal of this work is to study the optimal controls for the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. We consider an age-structured SEIRQ model with quarantine compartment, where the controls are the quarantine entrance parameters. We then compare the optimal controls for different quarantine lengths and distributions of the total control cost by assessing their respective reductions in deaths in comparison to the same period without quarantine. The best strategy provides a calendar of when to relax the isolation measures for each age group. Finally, we analyse how a delay in the beginning of the quarantine affects this calendar by changing the initial conditions. Elsevier Ltd. 2020-11 2020-08-13 /pmc/articles/PMC7425681/ /pubmed/32834650 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110166 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Gondim, João A.M.
Machado, Larissa
Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure
title Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure
title_full Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure
title_fullStr Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure
title_full_unstemmed Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure
title_short Optimal quarantine strategies for the COVID-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure
title_sort optimal quarantine strategies for the covid-19 pandemic in a population with a discrete age structure
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7425681/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834650
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110166
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