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The Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Global Armed Conflict: Early Evidence
As Covid-19 spreads around the world, international actors, including the United Nations, have called for a stop to armed conflict to facilitate efforts to fight the pandemic. At the same time, coronavirus may also trigger and intensify armed conflict due to its negative economic consequences and by...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
SAGE Publications
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7426721/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35082555 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1478929920940648 |
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author | Mehrl, Marius Thurner, Paul W |
author_facet | Mehrl, Marius Thurner, Paul W |
author_sort | Mehrl, Marius |
collection | PubMed |
description | As Covid-19 spreads around the world, international actors, including the United Nations, have called for a stop to armed conflict to facilitate efforts to fight the pandemic. At the same time, coronavirus may also trigger and intensify armed conflict due to its negative economic consequences and by offering windows of opportunity to opposition movements to attack distracted and weakened incumbents. We use real-time data on the spread of Covid-19, governmental lockdown policies, and battle events to study the causal short-term effect of the pandemic on armed conflict. Our results suggest that both the spread of Covid-19 and lockdown policies exhibit a global Null effect with considerable regional heterogeneity. Most importantly, governmental lockdowns have increased armed conflict in the Middle East. In contrast, reported combat has decreased in Southeast Asia and the Caucasus as the pandemic has spread. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7426721 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | SAGE Publications |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-74267212020-08-14 The Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Global Armed Conflict: Early Evidence Mehrl, Marius Thurner, Paul W Political Studies Review COVID-19: Pandemics, Global Politics and Societal Challenges As Covid-19 spreads around the world, international actors, including the United Nations, have called for a stop to armed conflict to facilitate efforts to fight the pandemic. At the same time, coronavirus may also trigger and intensify armed conflict due to its negative economic consequences and by offering windows of opportunity to opposition movements to attack distracted and weakened incumbents. We use real-time data on the spread of Covid-19, governmental lockdown policies, and battle events to study the causal short-term effect of the pandemic on armed conflict. Our results suggest that both the spread of Covid-19 and lockdown policies exhibit a global Null effect with considerable regional heterogeneity. Most importantly, governmental lockdowns have increased armed conflict in the Middle East. In contrast, reported combat has decreased in Southeast Asia and the Caucasus as the pandemic has spread. SAGE Publications 2021-05 /pmc/articles/PMC7426721/ /pubmed/35082555 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1478929920940648 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access page (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage). |
spellingShingle | COVID-19: Pandemics, Global Politics and Societal Challenges Mehrl, Marius Thurner, Paul W The Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Global Armed Conflict: Early Evidence |
title | The Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Global Armed Conflict: Early
Evidence |
title_full | The Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Global Armed Conflict: Early
Evidence |
title_fullStr | The Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Global Armed Conflict: Early
Evidence |
title_full_unstemmed | The Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Global Armed Conflict: Early
Evidence |
title_short | The Effect of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Global Armed Conflict: Early
Evidence |
title_sort | effect of the covid-19 pandemic on global armed conflict: early
evidence |
topic | COVID-19: Pandemics, Global Politics and Societal Challenges |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7426721/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35082555 http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1478929920940648 |
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