Szenarien und Projektionen zur weltweiten Energieversorgung im Vergleich

Scenarios and forecasts are an indispensable “tool” for decision-making in politics as well as for aligning the strategy of companies. In view of the long-term effects of investments, this applies in particular to the energy supply. This paper focuses on global perspectives. For this purpose, various institutions have submitted elaborations in which the supply and demand of all energies and technologies are taken into account. More recently, these have been primarily the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Shell, ExxonMobil, BP, Equinor, DNV-GL, McKinsey and the World Energy Council (WEC). Despite existing differences in methodology and knowledge, there are clear similarities in the assessment of future global energy supplies. The statements refer to the coming decades, in some cases up to 2040 or even significantly beyond. The key messages that can be derived from the studies of the organizations mentioned are presented. Possible effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, which have not yet been considered in the analyzed work, are also discussed.