Dilation of subglacial sediment governs incipient surge motion in glaciers with deformable beds

Glacier surges are quasi-periodic episodes of rapid ice flow that arise from increases in slip rate at the ice–bed interface. The mechanisms that trigger and sustain surges are not well understood. Here, we develop a new model of incipient surge motion for glaciers underlain by sediments to explore how surges may arise from slip instabilities within a thin layer of saturated, deforming subglacial till. Our model represents the evolution of internal friction, porosity and pore water pressure within the till as functions of the rate and history of shear deformation, and couples the till mechanics to a simple ice-flow model. Changes in pore water pressure govern incipient surge motion, with less permeable till facilitating surging because dilation-driven reductions in pore water pressure slow the rate at which till tends towards a new steady state, thereby allowing time for the glacier to thin dynamically. The reduction of overburden (and thus effective) pressure at the bed caused by dynamic thinning of the glacier sustains surge acceleration in our model. The need for changes in both the hydromechanical properties of the till and the thickness of the glacier creates restrictive conditions for surge motion that are consistent with the rarity of surge-type glaciers and their geographical clustering.