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Neural network powered COVID-19 spread forecasting model

Virus spread prediction is very important to actively plan actions. Viruses are unfortunately not easy to control, since speed and reach of spread depends on many factors from environmental to social ones. In this article we present research results on developing Neural Network model for COVID-19 sp...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Wieczorek, Michał, Siłka, Jakub, Woźniak, Marcin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7428770/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834663
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110203
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author Wieczorek, Michał
Siłka, Jakub
Woźniak, Marcin
author_facet Wieczorek, Michał
Siłka, Jakub
Woźniak, Marcin
author_sort Wieczorek, Michał
collection PubMed
description Virus spread prediction is very important to actively plan actions. Viruses are unfortunately not easy to control, since speed and reach of spread depends on many factors from environmental to social ones. In this article we present research results on developing Neural Network model for COVID-19 spread prediction. Our predictor is based on classic approach with deep architecture which learns by using NAdam training model. For the training we have used official data from governmental and open repositories. Results of prediction are done for countries but also regions to provide possibly wide spectrum of values about predicted COVID-19 spread. Results of the proposed model show high accuracy, which in some cases reaches above 99%.
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spelling pubmed-74287702020-08-17 Neural network powered COVID-19 spread forecasting model Wieczorek, Michał Siłka, Jakub Woźniak, Marcin Chaos Solitons Fractals Article Virus spread prediction is very important to actively plan actions. Viruses are unfortunately not easy to control, since speed and reach of spread depends on many factors from environmental to social ones. In this article we present research results on developing Neural Network model for COVID-19 spread prediction. Our predictor is based on classic approach with deep architecture which learns by using NAdam training model. For the training we have used official data from governmental and open repositories. Results of prediction are done for countries but also regions to provide possibly wide spectrum of values about predicted COVID-19 spread. Results of the proposed model show high accuracy, which in some cases reaches above 99%. Elsevier Ltd. 2020-11 2020-08-15 /pmc/articles/PMC7428770/ /pubmed/32834663 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110203 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Wieczorek, Michał
Siłka, Jakub
Woźniak, Marcin
Neural network powered COVID-19 spread forecasting model
title Neural network powered COVID-19 spread forecasting model
title_full Neural network powered COVID-19 spread forecasting model
title_fullStr Neural network powered COVID-19 spread forecasting model
title_full_unstemmed Neural network powered COVID-19 spread forecasting model
title_short Neural network powered COVID-19 spread forecasting model
title_sort neural network powered covid-19 spread forecasting model
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7428770/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32834663
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110203
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