Evaluation of the effect of the state of emergency for the first wave of COVID-19 in Japan

In this paper, we evaluate the effect of the state of emergency for the first wave of COVID-19 in Japan, 2020 from the viewpoint of mathematical modelling. In Japan, it was announced during the period of the state of emergency from April 7 to May 25, 2020 that the 80% reduction of the contact rate i...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Kuniya, Toshikazu
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2020
Materias:
Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7429510/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32844135
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.08.004
Descripción
Sumario:In this paper, we evaluate the effect of the state of emergency for the first wave of COVID-19 in Japan, 2020 from the viewpoint of mathematical modelling. In Japan, it was announced during the period of the state of emergency from April 7 to May 25, 2020 that the 80% reduction of the contact rate is needed to control the outbreak. By numerical simulation, we show that the reduction rate seems to have reached up to 86%. Moreover, we estimate the control reproduction number [Formula: see text] during the period of the state of emergency as [Formula: see text] (95%CI, 0.34–0.39), and show that the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] after the lifting of the state of emergency could be greater than 1. This result suggests us that the second wave of COVID-19 in Japan could possibly occur if any effective intervention will not be taken again.

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