Risk of Subsequent Knee Arthroplasty After Sports Medicine Procedures

INTRODUCTION: Approximately 10% of men and 13% of women older than the age of 60 are affected by symptomatic osteoarthritis of the knee. Anatomic repair or reconstruction after knee injury has been a central tenet of surgical treatment to reduce the risk of osteoarthritis. The purpose of this study was to examine common sports medicine procedures of the knee and determine the proportion of patients who subsequently undergo total knee arthroplasty (TKA). METHODS: The MarketScan database was queried from the period of January 2007 through December 2016. Patients were identified, who underwent a procedure of the knee, as defined by Current Procedural Terminology codes relating to nonarthroplasty procedures of the knee. Patients in whom laterality could not be confirmed or underwent another ipsilateral knee procedure before TKA were excluded from this study. The primary outcome of this study was the overall rate of TKA after index knee surgery. Time from index procedure to TKA was a secondary outcome. A multivariate regression analysis was used to control for covariates such as age, sex, and comorbidity status. RESULTS: A total of 843,749 patients underwent one of the 13 common sports medicine procedures of the knee. The procedure with the highest unadjusted rate of subsequent TKA was arthroscopic osteochondral allograft (5.81%), whereas anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction with meniscus repair demonstrated the lowest rate of subsequent TKA (0.01%). When adjusting for confounding factors, the regression analysis identified meniscal transplantation (odds ratio [OR] = 3.06, P < 0.0001) as having the highest risk of subsequent TKA, followed by osteochondral autograft (OR = 1.74, P = 0.0424) and arthroscopic osteochondral allograft (OR = 1.49, P < 0.0001). ACL reconstruction with meniscus repair (OR = 0.02, P < 0.0001), ACL reconstruction alone (OR = 0.17, P < 0.0001), ACL with meniscectomy (OR = 0.20, P < 0.0001), and meniscal repair (OR = 0.65, P < 0.0001) had the lowest rate of subsequent TKA. ACL reconstruction with meniscus repair had the longest period from index procedure to TKA at 2827 days. CONCLUSION: ACL reconstruction and meniscus preservation demonstrated an extremely low rate of conversion to TKA when compared with patients who needed salvage interventions such as meniscus and cartilage transplantation. None of the salvage interventions delayed the need for a TKA. Meniscal transplantation had the highest risk of all procedures of going on to a TKA.