The COVID-19 Pandemic Vulnerability Index (PVI) Dashboard: Monitoring county-level vulnerability using visualization, statistical modeling, and machine learning

BACKGROUND: While the COVID-19 pandemic presents a global challenge, the U.S. response places substantial responsibility for both decision-making and communication on local health authorities, necessitating tools to support decision-making at the community level. OBJECTIVES: We created a Pandemic Vulnerability Index (PVI) to support counties and municipalities by integrating baseline data on relevant community vulnerabilities with dynamic data on local infection rates and interventions. The PVI visually synthesizes county-level vulnerability indicators, enabling their comparison in regional, state, and nationwide contexts. METHODS: We describe the data streams used and how these are combined to calculate the PVI, detail the supporting epidemiological modeling and machine-learning forecasts, and outline the deployment of an interactive web Dashboard. Finally, we describe the practical application of the PVI for real-world decision-making. RESULTS: Considering an outlook horizon from 1 to 28 days, the overall PVI scores are significantly associated with key vulnerability-related outcome metrics of cumulative deaths, population adjusted cumulative deaths, and the proportion of deaths from cases. The modeling results indicate the most significant predictors of case counts are population size, proportion of black residents, and mean PM(2.5). The machine learning forecast results were strongly predictive of observed cases and deaths up to 14 days ahead. The modeling reinforces an integrated concept of vulnerability that accounts for both dynamic and static data streams and highlights the drivers of inequities in COVID-19 cases and deaths. These results also indicate that local areas with a highly ranked PVI should take near-term action to mitigate vulnerability. DISCUSSION: The COVID-19 PVI Dashboard monitors multiple data streams to communicate county-level trends and vulnerabilities and facilitates decision-making and communication among government officials, scientists, community leaders, and the public to enable effective and coordinated action to combat the pandemic.