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Temporal Dynamics of Viral Load and False negative Rate Influence the Levels of Testing Necessary to Combat COVID19 Spread

Colleges and other organizations are considering testing plans to return to operation as the COVID19 pandemic continues. Pre-symptomatic spread and high false negative rates for testing may make it difficult to stop viral spread. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model of COVID19 in a univer...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Jarvis, Katherine F., Kelley, Joshua B.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7430616/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32817971
http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173831
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author Jarvis, Katherine F.
Kelley, Joshua B.
author_facet Jarvis, Katherine F.
Kelley, Joshua B.
author_sort Jarvis, Katherine F.
collection PubMed
description Colleges and other organizations are considering testing plans to return to operation as the COVID19 pandemic continues. Pre-symptomatic spread and high false negative rates for testing may make it difficult to stop viral spread. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model of COVID19 in a university sized population, considering the dynamics of both viral load and false negative rate of tests on the ability of testing to combat viral spread. Reported dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 can lead to an apparent false negative rate from ~17% to ~48%. Nonuniform distributions of viral load and false negative rate lead to higher requirements for frequency and fraction of population tested in order to bring the apparent Reproduction number (Rt) below 1. Thus, it is important to consider non-uniform dynamics of viral spread and false negative rate in order to model effective testing plans.
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spelling pubmed-74306162020-08-18 Temporal Dynamics of Viral Load and False negative Rate Influence the Levels of Testing Necessary to Combat COVID19 Spread Jarvis, Katherine F. Kelley, Joshua B. medRxiv Article Colleges and other organizations are considering testing plans to return to operation as the COVID19 pandemic continues. Pre-symptomatic spread and high false negative rates for testing may make it difficult to stop viral spread. Here, we develop a stochastic agent-based model of COVID19 in a university sized population, considering the dynamics of both viral load and false negative rate of tests on the ability of testing to combat viral spread. Reported dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 can lead to an apparent false negative rate from ~17% to ~48%. Nonuniform distributions of viral load and false negative rate lead to higher requirements for frequency and fraction of population tested in order to bring the apparent Reproduction number (Rt) below 1. Thus, it is important to consider non-uniform dynamics of viral spread and false negative rate in order to model effective testing plans. Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory 2020-09-02 /pmc/articles/PMC7430616/ /pubmed/32817971 http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173831 Text en http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Jarvis, Katherine F.
Kelley, Joshua B.
Temporal Dynamics of Viral Load and False negative Rate Influence the Levels of Testing Necessary to Combat COVID19 Spread
title Temporal Dynamics of Viral Load and False negative Rate Influence the Levels of Testing Necessary to Combat COVID19 Spread
title_full Temporal Dynamics of Viral Load and False negative Rate Influence the Levels of Testing Necessary to Combat COVID19 Spread
title_fullStr Temporal Dynamics of Viral Load and False negative Rate Influence the Levels of Testing Necessary to Combat COVID19 Spread
title_full_unstemmed Temporal Dynamics of Viral Load and False negative Rate Influence the Levels of Testing Necessary to Combat COVID19 Spread
title_short Temporal Dynamics of Viral Load and False negative Rate Influence the Levels of Testing Necessary to Combat COVID19 Spread
title_sort temporal dynamics of viral load and false negative rate influence the levels of testing necessary to combat covid19 spread
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7430616/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32817971
http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173831
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