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Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples
In this article we propose a modified compartmental model describing the transmission of COVID-19 in Morocco. It takes account on the asymptomatic people and the strategies involving hospital isolation of the confirmed infected person, quarantine of people contacting them, and home containment of al...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7431117/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32837466 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12190-020-01421-9 |
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author | Serhani, Mustapha Labbardi, Hanane |
author_facet | Serhani, Mustapha Labbardi, Hanane |
author_sort | Serhani, Mustapha |
collection | PubMed |
description | In this article we propose a modified compartmental model describing the transmission of COVID-19 in Morocco. It takes account on the asymptomatic people and the strategies involving hospital isolation of the confirmed infected person, quarantine of people contacting them, and home containment of all population to restrict mobility. We establish a relationship between the containment control coefficient [Formula: see text] and the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] . Different scenarios are tested with different values of [Formula: see text] , for which the stability of a Disease Free Equilibrium point is correlated with the condition linking [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] . A worst scenario in which the containment is not respected in the same way during the period of confinement leads to several rebound in the evolution of the pandemic. It is shown that home containment, if it is strictly respected, played a crucial role in controlling the disease spreading. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7431117 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-74311172020-08-18 Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples Serhani, Mustapha Labbardi, Hanane J Appl Math Comput Original Research In this article we propose a modified compartmental model describing the transmission of COVID-19 in Morocco. It takes account on the asymptomatic people and the strategies involving hospital isolation of the confirmed infected person, quarantine of people contacting them, and home containment of all population to restrict mobility. We establish a relationship between the containment control coefficient [Formula: see text] and the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] . Different scenarios are tested with different values of [Formula: see text] , for which the stability of a Disease Free Equilibrium point is correlated with the condition linking [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] . A worst scenario in which the containment is not respected in the same way during the period of confinement leads to several rebound in the evolution of the pandemic. It is shown that home containment, if it is strictly respected, played a crucial role in controlling the disease spreading. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2020-08-17 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC7431117/ /pubmed/32837466 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12190-020-01421-9 Text en © Korean Society for Informatics and Computational Applied Mathematics 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
spellingShingle | Original Research Serhani, Mustapha Labbardi, Hanane Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples |
title | Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples |
title_full | Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples |
title_fullStr | Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples |
title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples |
title_short | Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples |
title_sort | mathematical modeling of covid-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples |
topic | Original Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7431117/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32837466 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12190-020-01421-9 |
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