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Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples

In this article we propose a modified compartmental model describing the transmission of COVID-19 in Morocco. It takes account on the asymptomatic people and the strategies involving hospital isolation of the confirmed infected person, quarantine of people contacting them, and home containment of al...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Serhani, Mustapha, Labbardi, Hanane
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7431117/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32837466
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12190-020-01421-9
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author Serhani, Mustapha
Labbardi, Hanane
author_facet Serhani, Mustapha
Labbardi, Hanane
author_sort Serhani, Mustapha
collection PubMed
description In this article we propose a modified compartmental model describing the transmission of COVID-19 in Morocco. It takes account on the asymptomatic people and the strategies involving hospital isolation of the confirmed infected person, quarantine of people contacting them, and home containment of all population to restrict mobility. We establish a relationship between the containment control coefficient [Formula: see text] and the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] . Different scenarios are tested with different values of [Formula: see text] , for which the stability of a Disease Free Equilibrium point is correlated with the condition linking [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] . A worst scenario in which the containment is not respected in the same way during the period of confinement leads to several rebound in the evolution of the pandemic. It is shown that home containment, if it is strictly respected, played a crucial role in controlling the disease spreading.
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spelling pubmed-74311172020-08-18 Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples Serhani, Mustapha Labbardi, Hanane J Appl Math Comput Original Research In this article we propose a modified compartmental model describing the transmission of COVID-19 in Morocco. It takes account on the asymptomatic people and the strategies involving hospital isolation of the confirmed infected person, quarantine of people contacting them, and home containment of all population to restrict mobility. We establish a relationship between the containment control coefficient [Formula: see text] and the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] . Different scenarios are tested with different values of [Formula: see text] , for which the stability of a Disease Free Equilibrium point is correlated with the condition linking [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] . A worst scenario in which the containment is not respected in the same way during the period of confinement leads to several rebound in the evolution of the pandemic. It is shown that home containment, if it is strictly respected, played a crucial role in controlling the disease spreading. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2020-08-17 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC7431117/ /pubmed/32837466 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12190-020-01421-9 Text en © Korean Society for Informatics and Computational Applied Mathematics 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Research
Serhani, Mustapha
Labbardi, Hanane
Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples
title Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples
title_full Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples
title_fullStr Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples
title_full_unstemmed Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples
title_short Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples
title_sort mathematical modeling of covid-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7431117/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32837466
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12190-020-01421-9
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