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Prediction of serious RSV‐related outcomes in older adults with outpatient RSV respiratory illness during 12 consecutive seasons
We developed and evaluated a model to predict serious outcomes among 243 adults ≥60 years old with medically attended respiratory illness and laboratory‐confirmed respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); 47 patients had a serious outcome defined as hospital admission, emergency department (ED) visit, or p...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7431638/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32390298 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12751 |
Sumario: | We developed and evaluated a model to predict serious outcomes among 243 adults ≥60 years old with medically attended respiratory illness and laboratory‐confirmed respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); 47 patients had a serious outcome defined as hospital admission, emergency department (ED) visit, or pneumonia diagnosis. The model used logistic regression with penalized maximum likelihood estimation. The reduced penalized model included age ≥ 75 years, ≥1 ED visit in prior year, crackles/rales, tachypnea, wheezing, new/increased sputum, and new/increased dyspnea. The optimal score cutoff yielded sensitivity and specificity of 66.0% and 81.6%. This prediction model provided moderate utility for identifying older adults with elevated risk of complicated RSV illness. |
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