Cargando…

Prediction of serious RSV‐related outcomes in older adults with outpatient RSV respiratory illness during 12 consecutive seasons

We developed and evaluated a model to predict serious outcomes among 243 adults ≥60 years old with medically attended respiratory illness and laboratory‐confirmed respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); 47 patients had a serious outcome defined as hospital admission, emergency department (ED) visit, or p...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Kieke, Burney A., Belongia, Edward A., McClure, David L., Shinde, Vivek
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7431638/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32390298
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12751
_version_ 1783571625309896704
author Kieke, Burney A.
Belongia, Edward A.
McClure, David L.
Shinde, Vivek
author_facet Kieke, Burney A.
Belongia, Edward A.
McClure, David L.
Shinde, Vivek
author_sort Kieke, Burney A.
collection PubMed
description We developed and evaluated a model to predict serious outcomes among 243 adults ≥60 years old with medically attended respiratory illness and laboratory‐confirmed respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); 47 patients had a serious outcome defined as hospital admission, emergency department (ED) visit, or pneumonia diagnosis. The model used logistic regression with penalized maximum likelihood estimation. The reduced penalized model included age ≥ 75 years, ≥1 ED visit in prior year, crackles/rales, tachypnea, wheezing, new/increased sputum, and new/increased dyspnea. The optimal score cutoff yielded sensitivity and specificity of 66.0% and 81.6%. This prediction model provided moderate utility for identifying older adults with elevated risk of complicated RSV illness.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7431638
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2020
publisher John Wiley and Sons Inc.
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-74316382020-09-01 Prediction of serious RSV‐related outcomes in older adults with outpatient RSV respiratory illness during 12 consecutive seasons Kieke, Burney A. Belongia, Edward A. McClure, David L. Shinde, Vivek Influenza Other Respir Viruses Short Article We developed and evaluated a model to predict serious outcomes among 243 adults ≥60 years old with medically attended respiratory illness and laboratory‐confirmed respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); 47 patients had a serious outcome defined as hospital admission, emergency department (ED) visit, or pneumonia diagnosis. The model used logistic regression with penalized maximum likelihood estimation. The reduced penalized model included age ≥ 75 years, ≥1 ED visit in prior year, crackles/rales, tachypnea, wheezing, new/increased sputum, and new/increased dyspnea. The optimal score cutoff yielded sensitivity and specificity of 66.0% and 81.6%. This prediction model provided moderate utility for identifying older adults with elevated risk of complicated RSV illness. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2020-05-10 2020-09 /pmc/articles/PMC7431638/ /pubmed/32390298 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12751 Text en © 2020 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Short Article
Kieke, Burney A.
Belongia, Edward A.
McClure, David L.
Shinde, Vivek
Prediction of serious RSV‐related outcomes in older adults with outpatient RSV respiratory illness during 12 consecutive seasons
title Prediction of serious RSV‐related outcomes in older adults with outpatient RSV respiratory illness during 12 consecutive seasons
title_full Prediction of serious RSV‐related outcomes in older adults with outpatient RSV respiratory illness during 12 consecutive seasons
title_fullStr Prediction of serious RSV‐related outcomes in older adults with outpatient RSV respiratory illness during 12 consecutive seasons
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of serious RSV‐related outcomes in older adults with outpatient RSV respiratory illness during 12 consecutive seasons
title_short Prediction of serious RSV‐related outcomes in older adults with outpatient RSV respiratory illness during 12 consecutive seasons
title_sort prediction of serious rsv‐related outcomes in older adults with outpatient rsv respiratory illness during 12 consecutive seasons
topic Short Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7431638/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32390298
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.12751
work_keys_str_mv AT kiekeburneya predictionofseriousrsvrelatedoutcomesinolderadultswithoutpatientrsvrespiratoryillnessduring12consecutiveseasons
AT belongiaedwarda predictionofseriousrsvrelatedoutcomesinolderadultswithoutpatientrsvrespiratoryillnessduring12consecutiveseasons
AT mccluredavidl predictionofseriousrsvrelatedoutcomesinolderadultswithoutpatientrsvrespiratoryillnessduring12consecutiveseasons
AT shindevivek predictionofseriousrsvrelatedoutcomesinolderadultswithoutpatientrsvrespiratoryillnessduring12consecutiveseasons