Cargando…
Single Parameter Estimation Approach for Robust Estimation of SIR Model With Limited and Noisy Data: The Case for COVID-19
OBJECTIVE: The susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model and its variants are widely used to predict the progress of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide, despite their rather simplistic nature. Nevertheless, robust estimation of the SIR model presents a significant challenge, particularly w...
Autores principales: | , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Cambridge University Press
2020
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7431866/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32580814 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2020.220 |
_version_ | 1783571668750303232 |
---|---|
author | Senel, Kerem Ozdinc, Mesut Ozturkcan, Selcen |
author_facet | Senel, Kerem Ozdinc, Mesut Ozturkcan, Selcen |
author_sort | Senel, Kerem |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVE: The susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model and its variants are widely used to predict the progress of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide, despite their rather simplistic nature. Nevertheless, robust estimation of the SIR model presents a significant challenge, particularly with limited and possibly noisy data in the initial phase of the pandemic. METHODS: The K-means algorithm is used to perform a cluster analysis of the top 10 countries with the highest number of COVID-19 cases, to observe if there are any significant differences among countries in terms of robustness. RESULTS: As a result of model variation tests, the robustness of parameter estimates is found to be particularly problematic in developing countries. The incompatibility of parameter estimates with the observed characteristics of COVID-19 is another potential problem. Hence, a series of research questions are visited. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a Single Parameter Estimation (SPE) approach to circumvent these potential problems if the basic SIR is the model of choice, and we check the robustness of this new approach by model variation and structured permutation tests. Dissemination of quality predictions is critical for policy- and decision-makers in shedding light on the next phases of the pandemic. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7431866 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Cambridge University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-74318662020-08-18 Single Parameter Estimation Approach for Robust Estimation of SIR Model With Limited and Noisy Data: The Case for COVID-19 Senel, Kerem Ozdinc, Mesut Ozturkcan, Selcen Disaster Med Public Health Prep Original Research OBJECTIVE: The susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model and its variants are widely used to predict the progress of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide, despite their rather simplistic nature. Nevertheless, robust estimation of the SIR model presents a significant challenge, particularly with limited and possibly noisy data in the initial phase of the pandemic. METHODS: The K-means algorithm is used to perform a cluster analysis of the top 10 countries with the highest number of COVID-19 cases, to observe if there are any significant differences among countries in terms of robustness. RESULTS: As a result of model variation tests, the robustness of parameter estimates is found to be particularly problematic in developing countries. The incompatibility of parameter estimates with the observed characteristics of COVID-19 is another potential problem. Hence, a series of research questions are visited. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a Single Parameter Estimation (SPE) approach to circumvent these potential problems if the basic SIR is the model of choice, and we check the robustness of this new approach by model variation and structured permutation tests. Dissemination of quality predictions is critical for policy- and decision-makers in shedding light on the next phases of the pandemic. Cambridge University Press 2020-06-25 /pmc/articles/PMC7431866/ /pubmed/32580814 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2020.220 Text en © Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc. 2020 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Original Research Senel, Kerem Ozdinc, Mesut Ozturkcan, Selcen Single Parameter Estimation Approach for Robust Estimation of SIR Model With Limited and Noisy Data: The Case for COVID-19 |
title | Single Parameter Estimation Approach for Robust Estimation of SIR Model With Limited and Noisy Data: The Case for COVID-19 |
title_full | Single Parameter Estimation Approach for Robust Estimation of SIR Model With Limited and Noisy Data: The Case for COVID-19 |
title_fullStr | Single Parameter Estimation Approach for Robust Estimation of SIR Model With Limited and Noisy Data: The Case for COVID-19 |
title_full_unstemmed | Single Parameter Estimation Approach for Robust Estimation of SIR Model With Limited and Noisy Data: The Case for COVID-19 |
title_short | Single Parameter Estimation Approach for Robust Estimation of SIR Model With Limited and Noisy Data: The Case for COVID-19 |
title_sort | single parameter estimation approach for robust estimation of sir model with limited and noisy data: the case for covid-19 |
topic | Original Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7431866/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32580814 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2020.220 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT senelkerem singleparameterestimationapproachforrobustestimationofsirmodelwithlimitedandnoisydatathecaseforcovid19 AT ozdincmesut singleparameterestimationapproachforrobustestimationofsirmodelwithlimitedandnoisydatathecaseforcovid19 AT ozturkcanselcen singleparameterestimationapproachforrobustestimationofsirmodelwithlimitedandnoisydatathecaseforcovid19 |