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Degradation Tendency Prediction for Pumped Storage Unit Based on Integrated Degradation Index Construction and Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model

Accurate degradation tendency prediction (DTP) is vital for the secure operation of a pumped storage unit (PSU). However, the existing techniques and methodologies for DTP still face challenges, such as a lack of appropriate degradation indicators, insufficient accuracy, and poor capability to track...

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Autores principales: Zhou, Jianzhong, Shan, Yahui, Liu, Jie, Xu, Yanhe, Zheng, Yang
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7435912/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32751872
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s20154277
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author Zhou, Jianzhong
Shan, Yahui
Liu, Jie
Xu, Yanhe
Zheng, Yang
author_facet Zhou, Jianzhong
Shan, Yahui
Liu, Jie
Xu, Yanhe
Zheng, Yang
author_sort Zhou, Jianzhong
collection PubMed
description Accurate degradation tendency prediction (DTP) is vital for the secure operation of a pumped storage unit (PSU). However, the existing techniques and methodologies for DTP still face challenges, such as a lack of appropriate degradation indicators, insufficient accuracy, and poor capability to track the data fluctuation. In this paper, a hybrid model is proposed for the degradation tendency prediction of a PSU, which combines the integrated degradation index (IDI) construction and convolutional neural network-long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM). Firstly, the health model of a PSU is constructed with Gaussian process regression (GPR) and the condition parameters of active power, working head, and guide vane opening. Subsequently, for comprehensively quantifying the degradation level of PSU, an IDI is developed using entropy weight (EW) theory. Finally, combining the local feature extraction of the CNN with the time series representation of LSTM, the CNN-LSTM model is constructed to realize DTP. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, the monitoring data collected from a PSU in China is taken as case studies. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) obtained by the proposed model are 1.1588, 0.8994, 0.0918, and 0.9713, which can meet the engineering application requirements. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms other comparison models.
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spelling pubmed-74359122020-08-24 Degradation Tendency Prediction for Pumped Storage Unit Based on Integrated Degradation Index Construction and Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model Zhou, Jianzhong Shan, Yahui Liu, Jie Xu, Yanhe Zheng, Yang Sensors (Basel) Article Accurate degradation tendency prediction (DTP) is vital for the secure operation of a pumped storage unit (PSU). However, the existing techniques and methodologies for DTP still face challenges, such as a lack of appropriate degradation indicators, insufficient accuracy, and poor capability to track the data fluctuation. In this paper, a hybrid model is proposed for the degradation tendency prediction of a PSU, which combines the integrated degradation index (IDI) construction and convolutional neural network-long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM). Firstly, the health model of a PSU is constructed with Gaussian process regression (GPR) and the condition parameters of active power, working head, and guide vane opening. Subsequently, for comprehensively quantifying the degradation level of PSU, an IDI is developed using entropy weight (EW) theory. Finally, combining the local feature extraction of the CNN with the time series representation of LSTM, the CNN-LSTM model is constructed to realize DTP. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, the monitoring data collected from a PSU in China is taken as case studies. The root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) obtained by the proposed model are 1.1588, 0.8994, 0.0918, and 0.9713, which can meet the engineering application requirements. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms other comparison models. MDPI 2020-07-31 /pmc/articles/PMC7435912/ /pubmed/32751872 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s20154277 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Zhou, Jianzhong
Shan, Yahui
Liu, Jie
Xu, Yanhe
Zheng, Yang
Degradation Tendency Prediction for Pumped Storage Unit Based on Integrated Degradation Index Construction and Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model
title Degradation Tendency Prediction for Pumped Storage Unit Based on Integrated Degradation Index Construction and Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model
title_full Degradation Tendency Prediction for Pumped Storage Unit Based on Integrated Degradation Index Construction and Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model
title_fullStr Degradation Tendency Prediction for Pumped Storage Unit Based on Integrated Degradation Index Construction and Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model
title_full_unstemmed Degradation Tendency Prediction for Pumped Storage Unit Based on Integrated Degradation Index Construction and Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model
title_short Degradation Tendency Prediction for Pumped Storage Unit Based on Integrated Degradation Index Construction and Hybrid CNN-LSTM Model
title_sort degradation tendency prediction for pumped storage unit based on integrated degradation index construction and hybrid cnn-lstm model
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7435912/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32751872
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s20154277
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